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Comments to SWSI~ November 3, 2003, by John Wiener 13 AWRA. The Journal of the American Water Resources Association has also published considerable scholarship~ but listing arr the sources by journals wourd take a long time. The ttheated debateJl as one book title (arguing jt~s aU wrong, I think; donJt know) has it, goes on.. Reports on Colorado places and sectors There ;s a very good and pleasantly accessible report from Dr. Dennis Ojima and Dr~ Jill lackett, and thejr coUeagues and a large group of farmers and ranchers which provides the Ubest avaUablell wrap..up for the Plains at the moment. It.s caned: Ojima, Dennist S. and Jirr M. Lackett~ Compilers, and otherst Jury 2002: Preoarina for a Chanaina Climate: The Potential Conseauences of Climate Variabilitv and Chanae -... Revort of the Central Great Plains Reaional Assessment Grauo, for the US Grobal Change Research Program. Fort Collins -- Colorado State University. The report is available at: http://www.nreJ.colostate .edu/projects/gpalg pa__report pdf Prospects for agriculture in the Plains are problematic, because of the difficulties for many common activities and how they compare to national production4 In short, things are not likely to improve for marginal farming even if regional yields are not hurt but the national production is increased, because the price squeeze is unlikely to be relieved, and may be worsened. If regional yields are decreased~ so much the worse. One interesting resu't is that irrigated agriculture may not be helped even if cJimate favors farmingt since the dryland growers wourd be comparatively much better off without the costs of production that irrigation involved. There is a new assessment for the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin region. which may be useful for the West Slope interests in agricurture and range management; this one was based at Utah State University~ It is Wagner, F.H., Ed.., 2003, Rockv Mountain...... Great Basin Reaional Climate Chanae Assessment. Report for the US Global Change Research Program, Logan, UT; Utah State University, available at: http://www .cnr. us u ~edu/defauJt .asp?category=pu br ications&section=publ ications&content=cl imate Unhappily, the current conditions include strong prospects for continuing decline in the agricultural sector of the region, almost regardless of any climate change. There are some high- value areas and speciarty crops, of courset but in general the trend is downward as water moves to municipal uses from low productivity extensive land uses. Hay alone was 41 % of the crop value in a non-drought year. The tourism, outdoor recreat;on~ and amenity-driven population growth are likely to increase in importance even if there is an increase in water availability. The value of maintaining flexibiUty in water distrjbution, especiaUy to keep alive the chances for development ot more specialty and high-value crops, may be particularly under..appreciated in the West Slope area. (One is reminded of the speciarty bean crops from Dove Creek and Cortez as examples, and the wine and fruit business in Palisade~ the Paonia area (especiaUy before the mining housing destroyed famous orchards -- they may be back someday!), and the OJathe sweet corn specialty crops; Green River meJons, and so forth.) The tlovervjew-I from the US GCRP National Assessment Synthesis Team is quite brief on each of the regions and the sectors; for example, see the Great PJains: http://www~usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/LibrarY/nationa.assessment/ovarviewgreatplajns.htm There is also the collection of regional assessments, and sector reports for the National Assessment. These were synthesized into the "foundation document', which is another rendition. One reason for the many editjons is literally editing and reviewing by different panels and offic;als~ because of the heavy political weight of controversy over climate jssues. The nwater sector'l report is considered excellent: