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<br />Comments to SWSf. November 3,2003, by John Wiener <br /> <br />10 <br /> <br />from the Farm BUI were not as much hefp as hoped because they stayed low, being indexed to <br />national price levers. This article may be a picture of future conditions under the present <br />approach. The ruraf picture in Colorado is not driven by local decisions and not directly drjven by <br />the fortunes of farming as it used to be. But, the indirect impqrtance of agricultural activity is <br />clearly shown by the strong public preferences and wirlingness to invest noted above. The <br />vulnerabiUty of farmingt thus~ can adversely affect what is 'ovedJ but the rura' economies will have <br />to maintain those benefits from farming and water distribution in order to maintain the quanties <br />that attracted others to these areas. <br /> <br />What about the climate? Practical Considerations raised by drought history, claims of <br />increased climate variability and change: background relevant to issues raised. <br /> <br />I want to emphasize an important point: the implications of drought history and <br />studies of the potential impacts of climate change are important for the SWSl'in a <br />way that might not be immediately obvious. Regardless of whether one believes <br />or disbelieves in the general claims of global environmental change, or in the <br />global circulation models which are a central research tool in some of that work, <br />the practical implications may be useful support for taking steps which are <br />potentially very important to small agriculture, rural communities, and urban <br />quality of life, no matter what else happens. <br /> <br />What practical advice, if anYJ can be drawn from the climate variabifity literature? <br /> <br />The Universities Council on Water Resources Water Resources UOdate (issue 124) recently <br />addressed the usefulness of that work for application in water system planning, in an issue edited <br />by Dr. Robert Ward (May 2003). The Colorado State CHmatoJogistt Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. <br />provided new evidence concerning the limitations of the global modering and its inability to <br />convincingJy focus on areas of operational size. Dr. Pielke and coUeagues have compiled <br />important arguments about the underestimation of the importance of local water and rand use as <br />wen as terrain and conditions not treated in the big-area or global models. In essence, if the big <br />picture can't be resolved welJ-enough down to working..unit sizes, is it useful? And if the working- <br />unit sizes (water sheds at scales for which one can make some useful poUcy) can-t be aggregated <br />so as to get the results like the big models, there are serious limits on usefulness. So, what can <br />one do with this? Maybe not much, as far as applying it to engineering facUities" <br /> <br />Some of the most advanced engineering at the terrain..hydrorogy..cUmate intersection is work <br />within this problem areat on how to optimize decisions about reservoir management and <br />operations rufes within such uncertainties, and it demonstrates the remarkabre difficulty of the <br />area (see the work of Georgakakos. Carpenter at alt Hydrologic Research Center; <br /><http://www4hrc..web.org/>).This lever of effort is very lntensive and jncludes a great dear of work <br />on compensating for uncertainty and developjng methods for opt~mizing management under <br />those conditions. The SWSI can hardry undertake thjs kind of research for every alternative, and <br />folJowing Dr. PieJke Sr. and Dr. Ward, the only sensible course is to take all this rather carefully. <br /> <br />NormaUy~ given a threat and uncertainty about it, one seeks insurance~ In this case; there is not <br />likely to be screntific certainty for a long time, so the next question Gust as in buying car insurance <br />or home~owner.s coverage) is, IIwhat is the 'ikely range of troubles?U One of the articles in that <br />issue of Water Resources Uodate concluded that, ..'gnoring the potentiaf impacts of climate <br />change because of the limitations in current modef;ng methods is an option that may result in <br />significant unplanned economic and social costs in the future.lI (Van Rheenen at al. 2003, p 124). <br />Another author in the same issue, Lawfordt (p.16) found that the climate modeling work is <br />lIintelltgence that should be part of contingency planning even if it is not considered in mainstream <br />