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San Juan/Dolores/San Miguel Basin Roundtable Technical Meeting #4 Meeting Summary Final Gap Analysis Kelly DiNatale presented the final gap analysis numbers for the SJDSM Basin and how the gaps were determined using the demand revisions. Kelly also reviewed the statewide demand figures, including an estimate of the remaining gross demand shortfall, or gap. The general locations of the remaining gap for each basin were also presented, as well as the additional uncertainty with the planned projects and processes going forward. Where applicable for each basin, provider level data were obtained and these were discussed along with general supply options. The estimated gross demand shortfall was reviewed on a county level for the SJDSM Basin, along with more specific information on the areas of gap occurrence and additional applicable details. Demand projection information developed under SWSI will be posted to the SWSI web site (www.cwcb.state.co.us). Agricultural demands, potential changes in irrigated acres for each of the eight basins and the SJDSM specifically, and locations of agricultural shortages were also presented by Kelly. Feedback from the BRT members on the gap analysis material follows. . The South Platte and Arkansas basins have the largest M&I gap due to population growth in areas outside service boundaries. . The Durango Water Company should be included in the estimate of the supply/demand gap. The Durango Water Company serves approximately 1,000 homes in the Animas Valley north of Durango using wells, with potential for growth. The Animas-La Plata Project could bring a need for augmentation due to calls. Existing water rights should be sufficient for growth. Ed Zink can provide additional info. . The uncertainty in the gap is estimated as 25 to 50 percent of the "Identified Projects and Processes" yield. The 3,500-6,900 AFY uncertainty presented on the map figure for the SJDSM basin does not include agriculture, environmental or recreation. . The 25 to 50 percent uncertainty may be too low for SJDSM Identified Projects and Processes - 60 to 70 percent may be more realistic. . Consider presenting the water supply gap as a range- in this case, 5,000 AFY base gap, possibly as high as 8,500-11,900 AFY (depending on uncertainty percentage). . The firm yield of existing rights can affect their uncertainty percentage - instream flows also can affect certainty of supplies. . Projecting out 30 years has some inherent uncertainty, and that instream flows are part of balanced water use. . The current drought appears to have brought additional conservation savings for some water providers, such as the Pagosa Area Water & Sanitation District. . The group should consider a potential Lower Colorado River call on the San Juan and other basins. The State Engineer's Office has put together a work group to consider the implications and administration of a call. The Yampa was identified as the most junior basin - the SJDSM is "in the middle" priority-wise. . Localized agricultural shortages within a district may not be reflected in the district-wide /I average" shortage value shown in the presentation. . District 33 includes compact obligations with NM. CDIVI 3 SJD BRT Mtg #4 Summary.doc 11/29/2004