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. . 214 2 000 ~.~ .,~.... .~._- c...._ --. -- -....... H BRlAN D. RICHTER ET Ai. Ecological AppUcatiol1s Vol 13, No.1 '...... ..... -n . ,_~.""'H . .... ....... H - ...-. -. .. __.n~.'O- <. -.. .-........ ...c_ ..~- -..-----u.............l f [ I ~ } Ii ;I: : I I 1 500 ~ oS ~ 1 000 .[[ ~ 0:' 500 o Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jut Aug Sap Oct Nov Dee FJG.6. Silnulated nafural flows during L~85 (black line) for the ApalachicoJa River are compared with ftO\VS that would occur under pmposed future (2030) human deluands and dam operations (gray line), as prescribed in the January 2002'Florida proposal. This conlpa'rison suggests' that the riverts naturai flow variability can be protected to a high degree under projected developnlent ?onditions. . , et a1. 1996). Statistical assessment of the differences between human-influenced flow conditions and eco- system requit'ements can help quantify .the magnitude of potential conflicts (Richter et at. 1996). When human..influ~nced flow regimes are. found to be iQcompatible with ecosystem flow requirenlents (ei- ther presently or in the future)t water l11anagers, sci- entists) water users, and conservationists will need to seek ways of alleviating the conflic~s, as discussed hI the next step. . STEP 4: COLLABORATJVBLY SEARCH1'NG FOR SOLUTIONS Once the areas of potential inoonlpatibility have been w~lJ defined and bounded in space and tiIne as de- scribed previously, options for reducing or e~inlinating conflicts between hUlnan and ecosysten1 needs can ,be explored ill an open dialogue among stakeholders. Fos.. . tering a collaborative dialogue among those affected by water managelnent decisions \vill help clarify val- ues~ share information, and build trust between partie.. ipantst making it far easier to build the consenS'l1S need.. ed to develop and implell1ent ecologically sustainable water lnanagement (Bingham 19863 Howitt' 1992, Ax- elrod J 994~ Rogers al1d Bestbier 1997). Human needs) desires) and preferences, inclu.ding those pertaining to river eco'8ystenl protection or res- toration, should be expressed. as a set of goals that collectively represent stakeholder intetestS4 This set of goals represents the desired integration of human and, ecosystem needs. Rogers and Bestbier (1997) suggest a franlework called all "objective~ hierarchyH for such goal setting. This objectives hierarchy begins with fOl.- mulation 9f a broad management visi~n, includes Inore specific management goals that. give better definition . to the vision, and is ultim,ately underpinned by a set of specific, quanti.fled objectives (expressed as "thres.h- oIds ?f possible concern" in Table 2),- which provide managers with n1a.nagement targets. Quantified objec- ti yes can include proposed levels - of hydropower gen... erati.on~ delivery of water supplies) management ofl'es- ervoir lake levels, and other human interests as well as ecosystem t~gets. In this step of O\1r framework, stakeholders.negotiate to have their desires or needs expressed in the set of mutually agreeable goals. that will drive. water man- agement activities. We' believe tb.at ecologically sus- tainable water managemel1t ultimately depends upon mutual cOlnnlitment to a basic philosophy that no one wins unless everyone wins; conservationists must. strive to meet human needs while water managers. COIn.. rnit to meeting ecosystem Tequirenlents. When all par.. ties are engaged in \vorking toward ecologically StlS- taillable water management, the power of hunlan in- . genuity can be optimally directed. During the fonl'utlation of mutually agreeable goals~ some of the incompatibilities identified in Step 3 will likely be resolved. For instanc.e~ certain water 'users may decide that they can achieve adequately satisfying benefits. while modifyillg their current water use, or fu~ ture expectations. On the Roanoke River in North Car- olilta~ The Nature Conservancy has proposed nlodifi- catlOllS to hydropower dam operations to alleviate un-' naturally long floods ,dlLIing the growing season that. inlpact floodplain ecosystems. The .pl.oposed modifi- cations are expected to result ill hydropower generation losses of only --2-S%~ The danl operators- have indi... cated that this. level of reduction is probably acceptable.