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<br />Bacteria <br /> <br />The most critical factor is how the sources of the bacteria contributions will change under <br />the future scenario. We could do a simple mass balance analysis that would assume a <br />completely mixed box essentially representing the water swimmers would use at the <br />beach. We could calculate the bacteria concentration in this box based on direct inputs of <br />bacteria from birds. This would be done under the existing depth and future depth <br />scenarios and would assume that only the number of birds or their proximity to the beach <br />would change. Other factors that may change between these two scenarios could be <br />considered in this calculation as long as they are well-defined. <br /> <br />Limitations: Without fully understanding the details behind the dynamics/sources of <br />loadings (bird populations and use patterns), a model or other analytical approach cannot <br />be done in a useful manner. The simple calculation may have so many unccrtainties <br />associated with it that it might not be that useful either. <br /> <br />Assumptions: Numerous questions need to be answered. What would change between <br />the existing condition and the reallocation (e.g., What is the number of birds contributing <br />waste directly to the beach? Are they even contributing directly to the beach or are they a . <br />distance away? If they are a distance away, how far away are they?). This simplified <br />approach only evaluates localized sources and impacts (e.g., the swimming beach), as <br />opposed to lake-wide impacts. It is assumed that the critical location is the beach (where <br />bacteria sources may be directly impacting human health/primary contact recreation). <br />Information on bird numbers under existing condition and after reallocation would be <br />provided. <br /> <br />Cost: Approximately $8,000 <br />