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Last modified
1/26/2010 10:19:58 AM
Creation date
12/18/2007 9:35:14 AM
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Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Basin
Statewide
Title
Flood Task Force Summary - 3/14/06
Date
3/14/2006
Prepared For
FTF
Prepared By
CWCB
Floodplain - Doc Type
Flood Task Force Meeting Materials
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<br />- 6 - <br /> <br />. San Juan/Dolores - is the southwest corner of state and in near drought conditions. It was good <br />year last year but they have water shortages to deal with since 2000. In this basin the reservoirs <br />are the bright spot. They have carryover storage that will help a lot. <br />. The DWR has not put hydrographs together yet as it's not quite run off season. An area of <br />concern is Dillon Reservoir that has only 25,000 AF of excess capacity right now. There are <br />concerns for Silverthorne. Denver Water will look at April 1 snowpack numbers and possibly <br />evacuate storage space. <br /> <br />National Weather Service - short term weather forecast (Treste Huse) <br />. Treste Huse, the Service hydrologist in the Boulder National Weather Service office, gave this <br />update. She showed the current flood risk map. This year we are looking at below normal flood <br />risk for the peak run off flows generally statewide. <br />. For the Roaring Fork River there is a greater than normal risk of flooding this year. Tom <br />Browning at the CWCB reminded us that even though the snowmelt flood threat is lower this <br />year, the 1976 big Thompson flood was a rain flash flood and so were the 1997 Spring Creek <br />flood in Fort Collins, and the 1999 Arkansas River Flooding. 1984 was last snowmelt flooding <br />event. <br />. A ridge is building Thursday through Saturday. Saturday night a system moving in, but if it <br />moves to four corners low we can see some moisture. Southeasterly flow can bring the best <br />moisture and can bring in potential for four corners low and potential for precipitation. <br /> <br />NOAA - Climate Dia2nostics Center (Klaus Wolter) - You can find Klaus Wolter's forecasts at <br />http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts. Recently we have had La Nina and El Nino <br />situations. <br />. Officially NOAA calls this year a La Nina but it's just at the threshold for being called a La Nina <br />year. The significant impact of weak La Nina year to Colorado's climate is that it doesn't make <br />significant differences above what is average. Klaus's summer forecast is ready March 1 ih. <br />. Klaus verified last summer and last winter's forecasts by comparisons to actual precipitation <br />from July-September 2005. His forecast skill is better in the winter months. El Nino Southern <br />Oscillation ENSO forecasts from 12 numerical and 8 statistical forecast models: in September, <br />not a single model predicted La Nina conditions of the strength currently observed; the <br />preliminary update for this month shows almost all models reverting back to "normal" by this <br />summer. <br />. An interesting trend this year was the cold temperatures in Alaska. Since the mid 1970s it hadn't <br />been that cold in Alaska. When you build cold air in Alaska it needs to go somewhere and it <br />tends to be cold along the spine of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The cold air when through <br />Siberia and then back to us this year. <br />. The European forecast model shows things might warm up. So far this is the model of choice. It <br />is tough for certainties with La Nina years as there aren't the documented cases. It started late <br />and it hasn't run its course yet. From 20 different model runs, only 2 of the 20 show an <br />intensification of La Nina. <br />. Last month's Climate Prediction Center forecasts for the next six months are undecided ('EC') <br />for us, although an increased tilt towards dryness to our south is consistent with albeit weak La <br />Nina conditions. When you use weak La Nina years the biggest difference is in southeast. It <br />tends to be wet on southeastern plains and dry along foothills. <br />. The constructed analogs find similarities and differences by the historical precedent. The spring <br />season is when this tool works the best. It has this huge bull's eye of dry in Colorado this spring. <br /> <br />Flood Protection . Water Project Planning and Finance. Stream and Lake Protection <br />Water Supply Protection. Conservation Planning <br />
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