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<br />01 <br />Ol <br />QJ <br />"'0 <br />-- <br /> <br />>. <br />(\j <br />E <br />o ' <br />cO <br /><( <br /> <br />NIN03_4 SST anomaly plume <br /> <br />ECMWF forecas1 from 1 Apr 2006 <br />to'bntht)' m2.3 ns plot1Bd usi ng HCE P adjus13d 0 t.r2 1971 -2000 cliITl3tok:Jgy <br /> <br />- System 2 <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />. <br />.~ <br />. <br />.+ <br />"+. <br />. <br />. <br />+. <br />++. ..+ <br />...++ <br /> <br /> <br />-1 . <br /> <br />t>JOIf DEe JAN FEB MAR APR MAY J UN JUL AU3 SEP CCT NOV DEe <br />2005 2006 2007 <br /> <br />Forecast prod uction date: 14 Apr 2\X6 <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />'-1 <br /> <br />......... <br />.....,. <br /> <br />- -- -I <br /> <br />The European <br />model's most recent <br />forecast is adamant I <br />about a continued <br />rebound into above- <br />normal conditions <br />(only one out of 50 <br />'spaghetti scenarios' <br />stays below normal). <br />Since this time of <br />year is known as the <br />'spring predictability : <br />1 <br /> <br />I barrier', we should <br />remain cautious. <br />