Laserfiche WebLink
<br />- -- -I <br /> <br />Executive Summary, Part II (21 April&4 May 2006) <br /> <br />3. My experimental forecast guidance for late spring (April-June 2006) has <br />deteriorated for much of the region, putting most of CO into at least a modest risk of <br />I a dry spring, while northwestern UT continues to be under the most severe drought <br />threat. A first outlook into the summer monsoon season (July-September) covers <br />most of CO, as well as parts ofNM and UT, with favorable odds, while leaving AZ <br />and southeastern NM with unfavorable odds. This forecast is handicapped by poor <br />verification skill this far out, in contrast to the more reliable, but pessimistic spring <br />I forecast. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: Winter precipitation anomalies over the southwestern u.S. <br />have been mostly consistent with typical La Nina impacts, including better-than- <br />average snowfall over the mountains of northern Utah and Colorado, and below- <br />average moisture to our south. Even our dry April is consistent with lingering La <br />Nina impacts, although April is typically more variable in its response than either <br />March or May. My current slightly pessimistic forecast for the remainder of spring <br />continues in the same vein, even though the event itself appears to be on its way out. <br />IfEI Nino were to emerge over the next few months, Colorado's odds for a wet <br />summer would improve. Stay tuned! <br /> <br />Source: klaus.wolter@noaa.gov; http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus. wolter/SWcasts/ <br />