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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />, <br />I <br />I <br />I' <br />I' <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />Introduction <br /> <br />system over the plains set off thunderstorms as the moist air masses <br />converged over the state. As a result of these thunderstorms, major flood <br />damages occurred in the 13 counties declared as federal disaster areas. The <br />most extensive damages took place in Larimer, Logan, and Morgan counties <br />(Interagency Hazard Mitigation Team 1997). <br /> <br />The storm that occurred in Fort Collins (Larimer County) on July 28, 1997, <br />had some characteristics in common with historically severe storms in the <br />region, such as the Rapid City, South Dakota, and Big Thompson, Colorado, <br />events in the 1970s. It also had highly unusual characteristics that differed <br />dramatically from major historical events and other storms that would occur <br />in eastern Colorado during the summer of 1997. Initially, tropical moisture <br />flowed into Colorado from the southwest; moisture at the lower altitudes <br />was directed toward higher elevations by nearly stationary cold fronts to the <br />east. These conditions were similar to those for severe historical storms in <br />the eastern Rocky Mountain region (Forecast Systems Laboratory 1998). <br /> <br />Given the direction of storm cell motion at the time, the resulting <br />thunderstorms normally would have been expected to move off the <br />mountains and onto the eastern plains. However, as resulting thunder- <br />storms moved eastward, outflows were generated and moved back toward <br />the foothills, supporting new storm formation at a relatively low altitude. At <br />higher altitudes, tropical moisture continued to enter the area from the south. <br />This rare combination of circumstances produced an unusually efficient <br />process for developing rainfall. The Fort Collins storm presented very little <br />lightning or hail, and the cloud top elevations were not as high as typical <br />western thunderstorms. This pattern of convection is typical of tropical <br />events in the southern and eastern U.s. and of tropical storms making <br />landfall in maritime regions, but it is uncommon in Colorado. The <br />precipitation that resulted probably would have caused significant flooding <br />even in a relatively flat rural area (Forecast Systems Laboratory 1998). <br /> <br />In contrast, other storm events in the state lacked the extreme tropical nature <br />of the Fort Collins storm. In the northern and central parts of Colorado, <br />. high-intensity rains also fell in June and late July. In some locations, the <br />largest storms came on the heels of several smaller storms in preceding days. <br />Late July and August events in the southern part of the state were typified by <br />this sequential occurrence of rainfall, and flood damages resulted even <br />though the rainfall amounts generally were not as severe as they were to the <br />north. <br /> <br />The following are important factors in assessing flooding potential (from a <br />meteorological perspective): <br /> <br />. The intensity of rainfall <br /> <br />d479/chap1.doc 08/12/98 <br /> <br />1-5 <br />