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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I A.3.1.7 Environmental needs A 'Watershed Experiment" should be capable of addressing issues of Environmental Sustainability within that Watershed, including water quality, stream flow standards, and protection of endangered species, while at the same time satisfying the overall water requirements of the inhabitants of the watershed such as ranchers, farmers, residents of townships, and industry. (The recommended research needs to be expanded to allow a greater understanding of the long-term, extra-area effects of cloud seeding.) A.3.1.8 Technology transfer To maximize the benefits of a 'Watershed Experiment," the experience gained should be used to enhance the conduct of ongoing operational programs in the United States, by transferring this new snowpack augmentation technology. A.3.2 Task B - Rain Augmentation for Drought Mitigation Studies Growing season dryness and droughts typically reduce United States crop production between 10 and 15 percent, with losses exceeding 30 percent in extreme years such as 1988. These reductions may increase in some areas as a result of global climate change. Such water shortages also have serious impacts on municipalities and industry. The application of atmospheric water resource management technology to augment rainfall to reduce the direct effects of drought has recently seen a significant upsurge in much of the western United States. In just the past five years, rainfall augmentation activities in west and south Texas have expanded from 2.2 million acres annually, to over 50 million acres. The entire state of Oklahoma is presently engaged in similar efforts. Summer rain augmentation experiments with single-cell and multi-cell convective clouds continue to suggest varying results. This response variability is not fully understood, but it appears to be linked to variations in cloud selection criteria and seeding execution. Perhaps there has been inadequate sampling of variables in space and time. While the randomized hygroscopic seeding results are viewed as very exciting, the chain of physical events that might be responsible is not well understood in contrast to glaciogenic seeding experiments. It is generally accepted that this second pillar of scientific understanding is needed to reinforce the statistical results before such results can be fully accepted. The National Academy of Science Workshop report (2000) includes the following recommendation for the future scientific directions in rainfall augmentation. The biggest future need is to put all forms of cloud seeding, both glaciogenic and hygroscopic, on stronger physical-statistical grounds. There is a perceived need worldwide for rainfall augmentation projects. Scientific knowledge badly lags the perceived need. Without a systematic research effort organized to address the most pressing scientific uncertainties, this gap is certain to widen. The following areas using new observational tools, laboratory studies and numerical modeling are deemed as necessary steps for future progress: 7