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<br />87 <br /> <br />Larson <br /> <br />Figure 3 <br /> <br />Area Wide Hydrologic Prediction System <br /> <br /> <br />probability that the rainfall in a particular HRAP grid has exceeded the flash <br />flood guidance for that grid square. The difference fields are a graphical <br />depiction of the quantitative difference between the flash flood guidance and <br />the radar estimated rainfall for each duration. A second difference graphic <br />will depict the same information for the radar estimated plus one-hour <br />projected rainfall totals. Utilizing the CRP products, the forecaster will be <br />able to outline the potential flash flood area. At that point, the forecaster can <br />issue the appropriate public product, either a flash flood watch or a flash <br />flood warning. <br />The Site-Specific Hydrologic Prediction System (SSHPS) is a local hydro- <br />logic model provided to allow the WFO forecaster to supplement RFC river <br />forecast guidance by generating forecast river stages for fast response <br />headwater and river basins. River stage observations and precipitation <br />estimates are provided as input to a simplified rainfall runoff model, which <br />produces an estimate of streamflow rise due to runoff reaching the river <br />channel. Initial soil moisture conditions are accounted for through model state <br />variables provided by the RFC. Dependent upon the model definition, other <br />inputs such as snowmelt runoff and potential evapotranspiration may also be <br />considered. Model definitions for individual basins are calibrated by the <br />