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<br /> <br />Do2l-tiS <br /> <br />CONCEPTUAL MODELING <br /> <br />26 <br /> <br />Program Background <br /> <br />As part of the overall synthesis to guide monitoring and research programs in each <br /> <br />resource area, a conceptual modeling effort will be initiated in FY 98 and will be completed in <br /> <br />FY 99 to represent Colorado River ecosystems, resources and resource attribute linkages. <br /> <br />Adaptive environmental assessment and management (AEAM) models will be used to guide <br /> <br />more integrated ecosystem monitoring and research programming. All research and monitoring <br /> <br />programs will contribute to the conceptual modeling activities. <br /> <br />Conceptual models will be developed to represent the Colorado River ecosystem from the <br /> <br /> <br />fore bay of GCD to the western most boundary of Grand Canyon National Park, as well as the <br /> <br /> <br />Lake Powell ecosystem. These conceptual models will be used to: (1) guide monitoring and <br /> <br /> <br />research planning, (2) more clearly define critical attributes and linkages within and between <br /> <br /> <br />resource categories, (3) promote improved understanding of key factors that drive changes in the <br /> <br /> <br />systems, (4) make qualitative assessments of resource change resulting from alternative dam <br /> <br />operations, and (5) provide information to stakeholders and managers regarding the potential <br /> <br />impacts of alternative dam operations on lake Powell and the Colorado River ecosystem and <br /> <br />associated resources. Completion of thess conceptual models in FY 99 will provide important <br /> <br />tools for organizing the GCMRC's understanding of the lake Powell and Colorado River <br />ecosystems and the effects of dam operations. <br /> <br />Final Draft - (12/15/97) For AMWG Review <br />