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<br />, . <br /> <br />I <br />OG1l536! <br />i <br /> <br />annual release volumd, but this example is one in which the forecast is relatively accurate. Since <br />the content of Lake M~ad is expected to be greater than that of Lake Powell on September 30, <br />1999 in this scenario, there would be no equalization releases. Thus the annual release volume <br />maintains the current full condition of Lake Powell and the safe control of the spring runoff <br />I . <br />would be the primary , operating objective. <br />I <br /> <br />Probable Minimum <br /> <br />This scenario has an aImual release volume of 8.23 MAF with monthly release volumes ranging <br />I <br />between 600,000 and 800,000 AF. The reservoir would reach a minimum elevation of about <br />3676 feet in March an~ a maximum spring elevation of about 3685 feet during June. A BHBF <br />would likely not be triggered, neither on January 1 as the result of a forecasted high runoff nor <br />during the spring as th~ result of a monthly release volume exceeding 1.5 MAF. <br /> <br />The probable minimwit scenario represents a dry year. Since the content of Lake Mead is <br />expected to be greater than that of Lake Powell on September 30, 1999 in this scenario, there <br />I <br />would be no equalization releases to increase the releases above the minimum release of 8.23 <br />MAF. Thus the annua) release volume would reduce the current full condition of Lake Powell <br />and the likelihood of a BHBF being triggered would be small. However, with a low inflow year, <br />there is possibility tha~ summer flows could be low. The likelihood of an 8.23 MAF release year <br />is about 20 - 25 percent. If Lake Mead were lower in elevation, the likelihood of an 8.23 MAF <br />release year would be much less--equalization releases would cause the total annual release to be <br />greater (perhaps a to~ release of 9 or 10 MAF), and flows during the year would be higher, <br />particularly during the : summer months when the equalization releases would be made. <br />I <br />