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<br />OD3384 <br /> <br />start. <br />d.--Did 200 traces go below elevation 1050 ft? <br />1.--Yes: Declare shortage. <br />2.--No: Declare normal. <br />2.--0r use CRSSez to generate Mead shortage triggers based ,on <br />scheduled normal and shortage uses for the next 56 years. <br />This involves averaging uses over a drawdown period so <br />that the assumed average use over this period will also <br />match the 'Drawdown Period vs Use plot from above. The <br />resulting average use is then used to determine the <br />drawdown from interpolation on the Drawdown vs Use plot. <br />The determined drawdown for each year is added to <br />elevation 1050 ft to give the shortage trigger for each <br />of the next 56 years. <br /> <br />VI. Surplus triggers generated as follows to protect shortage <br />triggers: <br />1.-- through 7.-- same as above. <br />8. --Did exactly 20% or 200 traces have ml.nl.mum elevations <br />below the shortage elevation for that use? <br />a. --No: Select new system starting conditions and rerun. <br />b. --Yes: Note the drawdown volume difference between <br />Mead starting contents and contents at the shortage <br />elevation. <br />9. --Repeat steps 2-8 for each of the 7 uses above and plot <br />Drawdown vs Use. ' <br /> <br />VII. Application of surplus Drawdown vs Use.. <br />1.--For AOP you could make a CRSSez run where: <br />a.--Use. schedule~ uses out to 2050 assuming surplus will <br />occur for the first year and normal there after. <br />b.--Set starting conditions to current elevations. <br />c.--Run 1000 traces and terminate if Mead greater than <br />start. <br />d.--Did 200 traces go below the shortage trigger for the <br />average use of the corresponding drawdown period? <br />1.--Yes: Declare normal. <br />2.--No: Declare surplus. <br />2. --Or use CRSSez to generate both surplus and shortage <br />triggers for the next 56 years as shortage above. <br /> <br />Attached Figure 3 shows the 80% assurance surplus triggers to <br />protect the shortage triggers and the 80% assurance shortage <br />triggers to protect Lake Mead elevation 1050 feet as computed using <br />the reservoir model CRSSez. <br />