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<br />INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CLIMATE SUMMARY, JUNE 2006 <br /> <br />Seasonal Drought Outlook through September 2006 Source: NOM Climate Prediction Center <br /> <br /> <br />According to the Drought Outlook issued June 15th by <br />the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, drought status in the <br />Intermountain West is likely to persist in eastern and southern <br />Colorado, central and northeastern Wyoming and western <br />Nebraska and Kansas. Improvements are anticipated in parts of <br />central Nebraska and Kansas, and areas of the Southwest that <br />are influenced by the rains from the upcoming monsoon season. <br />This Outlook has not changed appreciably since the May 2006 <br />Outlook. The monsoon typically begins in July over Arizona and <br />New Mexico, but also may bring rain to Colorado. The greatest <br />impact of the rains \;villlikely be the reduction of fire danger in <br />July and August. <br />The Seasonal Drought Outlook is based on the CPC long- <br />lead precipitation outlook for the upcoming season in this case <br />June-August (p. 14), drought termination and amelioration <br /> <br /> <br />rc <br />{ <br /> <br />c: ;:.. ..c::. <br />':)~ <br /> <br />() <br /> <br />probabilities from the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (see <br />URL below), and various medium and short-range forecasts and <br />models such as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts, and the soil <br />moisture tools. <br /> <br />Notes <br />The delineated areas in the Seasonal Drought Outlook (Figure <br />12) are defined subjectively and are based on expert assessment <br />of numerous indicators, including outputs of short- and long-term <br />forecasting models. "Ongoing" drought areas are schematically <br />approximated from the Drought Monitor (D1 to D4). For week- <br />ly drought updates, see the latest Drought Monitor text on the <br />website: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html. NOTE: The <br />green improvement areas imply at least a 1-category improvement <br />in the Drought Monitor intensity levels, but do not necessarily imply <br />drought elimination. <br /> <br />LJ <br /> <br />Drought Outlook <br />. Drought to persist or intensify <br />. Drought ongoing, some improvements <br /> <br />. Drought likely to improve, impacts ease <br />D Drought development likely <br /> <br />Figure 12. Seasonal Drought Outlook through September 2006 (release date June 15, <br />2006) . <br /> <br />On the Web <br />- For more information, visit: http://www.drought.noaa.gov/. <br />- Drought termination probabilities: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/drought/current.html <br /> <br /> <br />FORECASTS 11 6 <br />