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INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CLIMATE SUMMARY, JUNE 2006 Tem peratu re Outlook July - November 2006 Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center According to the NOAA/CPC monthly and seasonal forecasts Notes issued June 15th, above median temperatures are predicted across The seasonal temperature outlooks in Figures 10a-d predict the much of the southern tier of the U.S. for July 2006 (Figure likelihood (chance) of above-average, near-average, and below- 10a), and including especially the south-central region. Many average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The forecast tools support this forecast, including tools based solely on numbers on the maps refer to the percent chance that temperatures antecedent soil moisture for which there are large deficits over a will be in one of these three categories, they do not refer to actual very large area of the central U.S. temperature values. The seasonal (three-month) temperature outlook continues to The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast based largely indicate increased risk for above average temperatures through on the status of EI Nino and recent trends. As a starting point, the the September-October-November (SON) forecast period. A large 1971-2000 climate record for each particular 1 or 3 month period area of the southern and western U.S., including Utah, most of is divided into 3 categories or terciles, each with a 33.3 % chance Colorado, and southern Wyoming, has a 50% or more increased of occurring. The middle tercile is considered the near-average (or risk of above average temperatures in July-September (JAS) normal) temperature range. The forecast indicates the likelihood 2006 (Figure lOb), and above average temperatures are likely of the temperature being in one of the warmer or cooler terciles- throughout the summer for all or most of the Intermountain west -above-average (A) or below-average (B)--with a corresponding (Figure 10b-d). The high odds for a warm summer in Colorado are adjustment to the opposite category; the near-average category is anchored by a fairly pronounced warming trend (in addition to the preserved at 33.30/0 likelihood, unless the anomaly forecast prob- soil moisture impacts). ability is very high. For a detailed description of how this works, see The forecast for July 2006 will be updated on June 30th. Last notes on the following page. year, CPC began updating its forecast for the next month on the Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas for which the models can- last day of the previous month. This "zero-lead" forecast often not predict the temperature with any confidence. EC is used as a can take advantage of long-lead weather forecasts and typically "default option" representing equal chances or a 33.30/0 probability has increased skill over the forecast made mid month because of for each tercile, indicating areas where the reliability (i.e., 'skill') of the shorter lead time. This forecast is available on the same CPC the forecast is poor. webpages as the regular mid-month forecasts. A = Above 60.0-69.90/0 50.0-59.90/0 40.0-49.90/0 . 33.3-39.90/0 Figure 10a. Long-lead national temperature forecast for July 2006. (released June 15, 2006) Figure 10b. Long-lead national temperature forecast for Jul. - Sep. 2006. (released June 15, 2006) B = Below . 40.0-49.90/0 D 33.3-39.90/0 EC = Equal Chances Figure 10c. Long-lead national temperature forecast for Aug. - Oct. 2006. (released June 15, 2006) Figure 10d. Long-lead national temperature forecast for Sep. - Nov. 2006. (released June 15, 2006) On the Web - For more information and the most recent forecast images, visit: http://WWw.cpc.ncep.noaa.gOv/products/predictions/multi- season/13_seasonal_outloOks/color/churChill.html. Please note that this website has many graphics and may load slowly on your computer. - The CPC "discussion for non-technical users" is at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html - For I RI forecasts, visit: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/. More information about temperature distributions at specific stations in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and across the West can be found at the Western Regional Climate Center, httQ://www.wrcc.dri.edu/CLIMATEDATA.html. FORECASTS 11 3