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<br />FEATURE ARTICLE FROM INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CLIMATE SUMMARY, JANUARY 2006 <br /> <br />How to use the climate Forecast Evaluation Tool: Web-based method <br />yields quick way to test accuracy of seasonal predictions <br /> <br />By Melanie Lenart of the Climate Assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS) <br /> <br />(A version of this article first appeared in the November 29,2005 edition of the Southwest Climate Outlook, a CLIMAS publica- <br />tion, available at: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ climas/index.s html) <br /> <br />branch that issues official government <br />forecasts. Future plans call for similar <br />testing of forecasts issued by other agen- <br />cies, as well as testing of projections for <br />streamflow (water transport in rivers). <br />This article serves as a set of easy <br />instructions designed to guide you through <br />the process of using the FET for the first <br /> <br />Login and System Requirements: <br /> <br /> <br />If you are not <br />already registered <br />as a beta-tester, <br />please do so <br />here. <br /> <br />Welcome to tile Forecast <br /> <br />Evalllatloro Tool BETA-TEST Versloro 1.D. Tills <br />webslte pro..'ioes Ilelpful Informatloro about <br />climate forecasts lJSlrog botll JavaScrlpt aM <br />Java Applet-based lroteractlve graplllcal <br />tools, maps, alfd c!-.arts. T,o be able to utilize <br />or evero view tile Java-based tools oro this <br />site, your browser must be properly <br />coroflgured aoo vour computer svstem mllst <br />satisfy the requlremerots listed below. <br /> <br />of charge and registration information will <br />not be shared with any other organization. <br /> <br />Download Java <br />Many new computers already have <br />Java installed. If yours doesn't, Java offers <br />a free download of the Sun Java Runtime <br />Environment program (237 kilobytes) <br />needed to show the results <br />of the evaluations. You can <br />access a link to the Java <br />website directly from the <br />FET website. Choose the <br />correct program for your <br />system and follow the in- <br />stallation instructions. Once <br />the program is installed, <br />return to the FET website. <br /> <br />System Requirements: <br /> <br />The Forecast Evaluation Tool is a <br />product of several research programs, <br />including: <br /> <br />CLlMAS: Tile Climate Assessment for tile Southwest <br />ProJect, fUMed bV the National Ocearolc arod Atmospllerlc <br />AOmlrolstratloro (NOAA) Office of Global Programs. <br /> <br />GAPP: Tile GEI'IEX Americas Predlctloro Project, fUMed by <br />tile NOAA Office of Global Programs. <br /> <br />SAHRA: Tile Semi-Arid Hydrology aM Rlparlaro Area <br />Scleroce arod Tecllrool(}fJY Ceroter, furlded tJy tile Natlo[);31 <br />Sclerlce FouMatlorl (NSF). <br /> <br />HyDIS: (Tile Hydrologic Data aM Informatlorl System): <br />FUMed tJy tile National Aeronautical aM space <br />AOmlnlstratloro (NASA). <br /> <br />EOSDIS synergy: Fuooed bV tile NatlOrlal AerOrlalltlcal arod <br />Space Administration (NASA) throllgll Ravtlleon. <br /> <br />Full use of the Forecast <br /> <br />Evaluation Tool <br /> <br />requires the Sun JAVA <br /> <br />Runtime Environment <br /> <br />{ J RE lln addition to Intemet Explorer <br />version 5.5 or rlewer, Netscape version 6.2 <br />or newer, or Mozllla Flrefox verslorl 1.0.2 or <br />rlewer. Note: If ttle Java Runtime <br />Envlroromerlt IS not successfully IrlStalled on <br />your system, or your tJrowser Is not <br />corlflgured to dlsplav Java arod JavaScrlpt, <br />the Java-based tools 1'1111 show up as solid <br />~~~ia~~~~~~s on tile wetJ pages t!-.at <br /> <br />Irlstallatloro aM corlflollratloro Ilelo <br /> <br />Interpreting climate fore- <br />casts tutorial <br />An optional tuto- <br />rial introduces users to the <br />concepts and terminol- <br />ogy of CPC forecasts. For <br />instance, the tutorial brings <br />home the important point <br />Figure la: FET homepage (http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool). that an Equal Chances or <br />"EC" forecast is tanta- <br />mount to no forecast at all. <br />To make sure you're interpreting CPC <br />forecasts properly, you can take the five- <br />question self-test at the end. As soon as <br />you submit your answers, you'll see your <br />score as well as the correct answers. <br />Seasonal climate forecasts use a tercile <br />approach. They consider the probability <br />that climate conditions will fall into one of <br />three categories: above-average, near-av- <br />erage, or below-average. Average is rela- <br />tive to actual conditions observed during a <br />30-year period-from 1971 through 2000. <br />Each of the 30 baseline seasons (or <br />years) is divided equally into these three <br />categories, with 33 percent labeled above- <br />average, 33 percent called near-average, <br /> <br />The article describes a tool for users to <br />evaluate climate forecasts, which may be <br />useful for our readers in the Intermountain <br />West Region. <br />"I could do better by flipping a coin." <br />If this thought has ever crossed your mind <br />while considering a climate forecast, you <br />can test your theory objectively using <br />the web-based Forecast <br />Evaluation Tool (FET). <br />The tool allows for an <br />on-line examination of the <br />successes and failures of <br />past forecasts by climate <br />di vision, season, and lead <br />time of the forecast. <br />The Forecast Evaluation <br />Tool grew under the tute- <br />lage of Dr. Holly Hartmann <br />based on interviews she <br />conducted with regional <br />decision-makers for The <br />University of Arizona's <br />Climate Assessment for <br />the Southwest (CLIMAS), <br />a program funded by the <br />National Oceanic and <br />Atmospheric Administra- <br />tion (NOAA). Stakeholders <br />revealed that they were hesitant about bas- <br />ing decisions on seasonal climate forecasts <br />without knowing the track records of the <br />forecasts. Western Water Assessment has <br />seen similar attitudes among water manag- <br />ers in Colorado. <br />With support from a half-dozen other <br />agencies over the years, Hartmann and <br />her team responded by designing the FET <br />to provide customized comparisons of <br />climate forecasts. Although the website <br />continues to evolve and the tool is still <br />under development-it is considered a <br />"beta-test" version-the FET no\v can <br />compare all forecasts made since 1994 by <br />the National Weather Service's Climate <br />Prediction Center (CPC), the NOAA <br /> <br />This allows YOLl full access to <br />all tile webtool features. lro <br />exct-.aroge, we mav COrltact YOLl <br />for feedback about tile usability <br />of the webtool, tile desirability <br />of addltlo[);31 features, arod your <br />Llse of tile webtool lro maklrog <br />resollrce ma[);3gement <br />oeClslOrlS. l'le also appreCiate <br />any commerots YOLl may serod <br />LIS atJout tile webtonl as YOll <br />are lIslng It. <br /> <br />For comments about forecasts, corltact HO Y Hartmann: hcll"IlLiOhwr.arlzOna.edll <br />For comments about tills wetJslte, COrltact tile HVD1S T<:am: 1l',Ols teamltllllwr.arlZOlla.edLl <br /> <br />time to check the performance of the <br />CPC climate forecasts you consider most <br />relevant. <br /> <br />Getting started <br />Go to the website http://fet.hwr.ari- <br />zona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/ (Figure <br />la). Register for the confidential service <br />by providing your name, organization, and <br />email address and choosing a login name <br />and password. After you submit your <br />registration information, you should be <br />able to sign in with no wait. In time, users <br />will have the option to save their evalua- <br />tion work and other climate information <br />for future reference. Use of the FET is free <br /> <br /> <br />FEATURE ARTICLE I 2 <br />