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<br />MAY 2006 DROUGHT UPDATE <br />Water Availability Task Force Co-Chairs <br /> Veva McCaig, CWCB - 303-866-3339 Jack Byers, DWR - 303-866-3581 <br />.co.us <br /> Email - genoveva.mccaig@state Email - jack.byers@state.co.us <br />For a complete summary of the May 16, 2006 Meeting of the Water Availability Force, please visit the <br /> CWCB website at www.cwcb.state.co.us. <br />Executive Summary <br />The state is experiencing drought conditions in the South Platte River Basin, Arkansas River Basin, Rio Grande River <br />Basin and parts of the Southwest. The Dry conditions are having a significant impact on the wildfire conditions and <br />agriculture. The potential for the general dry conditions with increasing drought conditions to expand exists due to the <br />generally dry and hot forecasts. Although high elevation snow pack has helped delay the onset of drier conditions the <br />early melt, low stream flow and lack of precipitation has raised significant concern. <br />Colorado State University's (CSU) Colorado Climate Center data indicates precipitation is below average statewide. <br />Significant precipitation has not occurred since October over much of the state. Snow water equivalent (SWE) levels <br />are at 51% statewide and are deteriorating rapidly. <br />April is usually the wettest month for Colorado however April 2006 had lower than usual precipitation and warm <br />temperatures. NRCS data shows Colorado has only nine inches more precipitation on this date compared to 2002. <br />The Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) indicates the snowpack has diminished quickly from April 1 to <br />May 1 due to the current snow meltout. The May 1, 2006 snowpack is only 65% of average. <br />Reservoir storage is above average statewide with a few notable exceptions, John Martin and Pueblo Reservoirs in the <br />Arkansas River Basin and Platoro Reservoir in the Rio Grande Basin. <br />Streamflow conditions generally reflect the SWE associated with the snowpack conditions. However in some <br />locations the dry soil conditions and high temperatures have resulted in lower stream flow than expected. <br />NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has indicated that La Nina is transitioning to a neutral condition. May is predicted <br />to be dry. A slight chance for cooler temperatures and more moisture for June exists, and a variable, near normal <br />weather pattern is forecast for late summer. <br />Dry, warm, and windy weather has resulted in substantial impacts on agriculture. The poor pasture conditions have <br />resulted in modifications to CRP grazing controls. The low moisture condition will impact the wheat crop yield and <br />irrigation demands for other crops will likely occur sooner than normal with potential shortages possible in meeting <br />late season water requirements. There is a great concern about the dry conditions in the San Luis Valley, and impacts <br />to the groundwater pumping. <br />Wildfire is a significant concern from 5,000 to 7,000 feet near the Front Range, especially in populated foothills <br />where they are seeing fire danger near 2002 dry levels. Lightning and windy weather will contribute to the fire <br />danger statewide. <br />A dry-heat weather pattern is predicted to continue into Memorial Day weekend with temperatures 3-7 degrees above <br />average with little precipitation. Major rivers should peak May 21-27th. A public safety concern of 40-50 degree <br />water temperature with 80-degree air temperatures for the holiday weekend is predicted. <br />