WATFMeetingSummaryApril2006 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

APRIL 2006 DROUGHT UPDATE The Colorado, Yampa/White and North Platte basins are currently experiencing above average snowpack conditions. The Arkansas, Gunnison and South Platte Basins are experiencing slightly below average snowpacks, while the Rio Grande and San Juan/Dolores basins are presently well below average. NRCS data shows that most basins reached their snow peak two to three weeks early, which means that the southern portion of the State, which is already experiencing drought conditions, will be unable to make up for the deficit and continue to decline. Statewide reservoir storage is normal for this time of the year at 98% of average and 114% of last year's average. The Gunnison Basin has the highest reservoir storage, while the Arkansas Basin has the lowest. Reservoirs around the state continue to show improvement over record low levels in 2002 and 2003. While storage levels are recovering, levels in the south and southeast continue to benefit from last year's water storage in spite of the dry conditions and low precipitation levels. Streamflows are forecasted to be average to above average in the northern part of the State due to the early snow meltout, which may increase the potential for flooding in this part of the State. Muddy Creek and the Blue and Eagle Rivers in the Colorado Basin are already flowing at normal or above normal averages for this time of year, and the peak snowmelt runoff isn't generally until June 7th through June 10th. Long Term Forecast Summary La Niña conditions have weakened rapidly and are not forecasted to be a major factor in climate for the summer. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation forecasts for the next 6 months are undecided, showing an equal chance of dry conditions or wet conditions for much of the State. However temperature forecasts for the same time period indicate above normal temperatures. The CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through July 2006 indicates persisting and intensifying drought conditions in the south and southeastern portions of Colorado. There is a strong possibility for significant late summer water supply shortages across southern Colorado. The National Interagency Fire Center’s Seasonal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook through August 2006 indicates an above normal significant fire potential throughout the southern and eastern portions of the State. NOTE: The NRCS maps depicted in this report were those presented at the April 20, 2006 meeting and may have been updated since the meeting.