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LongTermOutlookSept2007
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LongTermOutlookSept2007
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Last modified
11/18/2009 4:03:09 PM
Creation date
9/26/2007 9:03:39 AM
Metadata
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Template:
Drought Mitigation
Title
Seasonal Outlook Through March 2008
Date
9/25/2007
Description
Water Availability Task Force Meeting Presentation
Basin
Statewide
Drought Mitigation - Doc Type
Presentation
Document Relationships
NRCSSept2007
(Message)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
SWSIReportSept2007
(Message)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\DayForward
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<br />What about La Nina in CO's southern mountains? <br /> <br />Seasonal LA NINA PRECIP (San Juans) <br /> <br />100 <br /> <br />100 <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />80 "'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''':.A: <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />80 <br /> <br />t <br />t <br />+ <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />W <br />...J 60 <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />I- <br />Z <br />W <br />(.) <br />~ 40 <br />W <br />a.. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />60 <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />I A SW -LA I <br /> <br />40 <br /> <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />t <br />. <br /> <br />20 <br /> <br />20 <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />JJA SON DJF MAM <br /> <br />DRY WET DRY <br /> <br />Seasonal precipitation <br />amounts (in percentiles <br />from 1950-99) for 10 La <br />Nina cases: 1950-1, <br />54-5 55-6 56- 7 64-5 <br />, , , , <br /> <br />70-1 71-2 73-4 75-6 <br />, , , , <br /> <br />and 88-9, based on the <br />MEI. If 8 or more cases <br />out of 1 0 reside above <br />or below the median, <br />the distribution is <br />shifted significantly. If <br />4 or more cases reside <br />in the upper (800/0) or <br />lower (200/0) quintile, <br />there is only a 1 0% <br />chance that this result <br />is by accident. <br />Conversely, 0 cases in <br />the highest quintile <br />denote a significant <br />suppression of the <br />same odds. <br />
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