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<br />. <br /> <br />Executive Summary (25 sep 2007) <br /> <br />"Official" version at: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus. wolter/SWcasts/ <br /> <br />After a long stretch of near-neutral ENSO conditions, a cold ENSO-phase has <br />finally become established during the last month. Weak-to-moderate La Nina <br />conditions can be expected for at least the remainder of 2007. <br /> <br />'. <br /> <br />The last month has seen a fairly active late monsoon pattern in the <br />southwestern U.S., including Colorado. Despite warmer than average <br />temperatures, wild fires have remained fairly subdued in much of the state. <br />While the monsoon season appears to be winding down, westerly storm <br />systems have yet to drop into our latitudes on a regular basis, despite <br />yesterday's unusual visitor. The remainder of September looks dry, which <br />should at least allow for good fall color viewing. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />My experimental forecast guidance for the fall season (October-December) <br />remains on the dry side for Arizona and eastern Colorado, both regions where <br />such forecasts have shown skill in the recent past, and consistent with La <br />Nina conditions. A first peek at the late winter season (January-March 2008) <br />reveals a continued tendency towards dry conditions in Arizona and eastern <br />Colorado, joined by a dry outlook for New Mexico. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Bottomline: After a warm and not excessively dry summer monsoon season, <br />the next six months promise near-normal moisture at best in Utah and western <br />Colorado, while Arizona, New Mexico and eastern Colorado are more likely to <br />see a dry fall and winter. While this is mostly consistent with La Nina, there is <br />still hope that this cold ENSO event might be short-lived and weak enough to <br />allow for a less gloomy outcome in this drought-afflicted part of the U.S. <br />