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Western States Water Council Water Resources Committee Minutes Washington, D.C. March 28, 2006 . The other thing they are doing this year is updating the statistical forecasts for their constituents. They coordinate with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) and Army Corps of Engineers. All of these agencies have so much computing power now that it happens automatically. They desire to give the public consistent information. They provide monthly projections through the fall and winter. The professionals they work with often know more about the data than NWCC. Jon addressed the history ofthe snow survey and water supply forecasting. In the Reno area, Professor James Church, at the University of Nevada, invented the snow sampler that they use. From 1905-1911, he established a snow course on Mt. Rose. This is being celebrated this year. NWCC deals in climate information. This is a nationwide effort, available in every Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) office. You can get SNOTEL information, National Weather Service (NWS) information (frost free days, etc.), as well as analytical tools. They are moving their site near Ogden to a site near Dugway, Utah. The soil climate analysis network (SCAN) uses the same network, and also utilizes meteor burst technology. This is the backbone technology that has been proven over a 10-year period. This is currently a project that is bootlegged off of SNOTEL. New site requests are being made. They cannot meet all of the opportunities. They are at the point where their folks are being worked overtime, and they still cannot meet all of the needs or requests for information. . Next, Jon discussed climate trends and climate change. He referred to the work of Dr. Tom Pagano, described in this slides. Our forecasting skills are intricately tied to numbers. We need good data, which point was emphasized in the slides. With respect to FY2007 funding for the Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program, NWCC has held its own, but has seen no increase. Questions and Answers Tom Maddock: You mention that you are predicting these dry and wet periods for seven years. Where did the seven years come from? Werner: I cannot speak to the 7-year period. That came from the Scripps Institute. Tom: Now that you've started adding soil moisture at the SNOTEL sites, have you developed a calibration factor for these sites? Werner: Our SNOTEL site in Utah was able in 2005 runoff year to measure the extreme dryness of the soil under the snowpack. That altered our statistical procedure and runoff forecasts. We are using it . effectively. We don't have a study yet that would show how helpful that data is. 4