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drought had eased. The Drought Shadow theory predicts that water use will increase to levels 5 or 10 percent lower than pre-drought levels. In many instances, however, the water utilities attenuated or eliminated their aggressive conservation efforts once the drought threat had diminished. A February 3, 2006 public opinion analysis done by Ciruli Associates indicates an interest by water users to continue their conservation efforts, "but the polls also point out that conservation behavior is partially event-related, and as reports of the recent multi-year drought fade, conservation efforts could decay." Because of the uncertainty with regard to how far demand will rebound as the drought eases, staff is using 200 gcd as the baseline to measure savings in the Tap-Smart Conservation Plan. This amount is 5 percent below the pre-drought water use levels of 211 gcd and is consistent with the "drought shadow" theory. The permanent changes in water use caused by the drought may be more than 5 percent, but it will only become apparent in subsequent years and be counted toward the 165 GCD goal. Influences on Water Use The effect of the drought on long-term water use levels will remain uncertain for several years because of the various factors which affect system-wide water use. Among these factors are: · Temperature and precipitation · Household income · Water rates · Mandatory water use restrictions · Level of conservation efforts by a utility · Technological improvements in water use fixtures and appliances For example, weather conditions have a significant impact on outdoor water use during the irrigation season (April-October). Most of the landscapes in Denver Water's service area require more water than natural precipitation provides. In hot, dry years, the requirement for supplemental irrigation increases, and in wet, cool years, the need for supplemental irrigation decreases. Household income and water rates cause changes in water use levels on a system-wide basis. As household income increases, water use typically increases. Conversely, as water rates increase, water use decreases. Commercial and Industrial accounts, which typically have lower outdoor water use, are affected mostly by pricing factors. For some commercial and industrial accounts, the water bill makes up a large percentage of total costs. Mandatory water use restrictions and successful conservation programs implemented by a utility will decrease water use. Mandatory restrictions are usually used in emergencies such as droughts and are meant to achieve 10