Arkansas Basin_Water Supply and Needs

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Section 5 Projected Water Use in the Arkansas Basin 100 200/0 South Platte 409,700 530/0 '~DDll 1HJWD Figure 5-7 Projected Increase in Combined Gross M&I and 551 Demand (AFY) and Percent Increase from 2000 to 2030 by Basin High and low estimates were also developed around the baseline M&I and SSI water use projections described above. Results of the high and low analysis are presented on a basin basis in Figure 5-8. These values represent the range of demands that might be expected to occur in each basin in 2030. Enhanced conservation efforts that could further reduce the "low" water use projections were considered in the options evaluation phase as described in Section 9. 0 M 1,400,000 0 N .E 1,200,000 Q) U) :J 1,000,000 a... Q) 10 800,000 3:u:- Ci5 ~ 600,000 en -g 400,000 co ~ 200,000 :;: U) U) o t5 1>-~ bO ~ 0<:- ~0 be ~e fl;C:- ~/;j ~'lj A<S .*' L)'~ 'lt~ L)'~ .t~ ~ ~o ~'!J ~~ ~ " (j ~ " ~(!)' ,s cP ".,<:- (!)<S ~o~ . 0 ~ .*-(lJ fiv ~ ~ e:,o ~~ ~ ~~ ")~ _t'lt~ (b.<:- "' f:' e/;j ~o~ ~ Figure 5-8 Range of Potential Gross M&I and 551 Water Use in 2030 DRAFT o :\SHA WN\ARKANSAS\S5 _ARKANSAS. DOC Projected 2030 Agricultural Demand Projections of 2030 agricultural demands and supporting data are presented in Table 5-8. As a result of the estimated potential changes in irrigated acres, agricultural demands and their associated gross diversions are shown as decreasing in the Arkansas, Colorado, Gunnison Rio Grande, and South Platte Basins. Demands in the Dolores/San Juan/San Miguel and Yampa/ White Green Basins may have a net increase if additional agricultural supplies are developed to provide for the increase in irrigated acres. 5.3 A summary of total projected Colorado agricultural use relative to M&I and SSI demands is shown in Figure 5-9. As can be seen, agricultural use is expected to still comprise the majority of these uses in 2030. 2% iii Agricultural iii M&I . 551 Figure 5-9 Relative Proportions of Agricultural, M&I, and 551 Water Use in 2030 To better anticipate future conditions, it is helpful to examine existing supply and demand. There are a number of factors that impact the calculation of water shortages such as the relative priority of water rights, the physical supply of water available for diversion at any given point, and irrigation practices. These factors are discussed in greater detail below. First, under the Colorado prior appropriation system, water is allocated based on the priority of the water right, so that during times of average to less than average streamflows, some water rights will not be in priority, resulting in a shortage of water to meet irrigation water requirements. The South Platte and Arkansas Basins have many irrigation ditches that are water-short as a result of the extensive appropriation and competition for water in these basins. The Frying Pan-Arkansas (Fry-Ark) Project in the Arkansas Basin was developed to address a portion of the water shortages in the Arkansas Basin. CDIVI 5-10