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<br />Section 5
<br />Consumptive Water Needs in the Arkansas Basin
<br />
<br />Table 5-5 provides an estimate of the range of
<br />potential changes in irrigated acres in each basin.
<br />Future changes will be impacted by many factors,
<br />including the development of additional storage to
<br />provide firm water supplies for agriculture, policies of
<br />M&I water users regarding the acquisition of
<br />agricultural water rights, M&I growth rates and the
<br />location of future growth, and whether there are cost-
<br />effective alternative sources of water to meet future
<br />M&I water needs. There could be significant
<br />additional reductions in irrigated acres in the
<br />Arkansas Basin beyond the estimates provided in
<br />Table 5-5 if water providers are unsuccessful in
<br />implementing their identified plans such as
<br />developing additional storage to firm existing water
<br />supplies. Figure 5-5 illustrates an estimate of potential
<br />changes statewide.
<br />
<br />Table 5-5 Breakdown of Potential 2030 Changes in Irrigated Acreage
<br />
<br />
<br />. I" ". "
<br />
<br />Basin
<br />
<br />Potential Decrease
<br />in Irrigated Acres
<br />resulting from
<br />transfers
<br />
<br />Potentia_ _ _ _ _ _ g~e
<br />in Irrigated Acres
<br />resulting from
<br />urban ization of
<br />irrigated lands
<br />
<br />
<br />Source: Colorado's Decision Support Systems and Basin Roundtable/
<br />Basin Advisor input.
<br />Figure 5-5
<br />Potential Changes in Irrigated Acreage by 2030
<br />
<br />Potential Decrease
<br />in Irrigated Acres
<br />for other reasons
<br />
<br />Potential Increase
<br />in Irrigated Acres if
<br />additional supplies
<br />are developed
<br />
<br />Range of Potential
<br />Net Change in
<br />Irrigated Acres
<br />
<br />Arkansas 17,000-59,000 2,300-4,500 4,000-8,000 23,000- 72,000
<br /> Decrease
<br />Colorado 1,200-2,700 6,700-13,000 7,900-16,000
<br /> Decrease
<br />Dolores/ San Juan/ 100-200 1,500-3,100 2,000-4,000 1,300 Decrease up
<br />San Miguel to 2,400 Increase
<br />Gunnison 300-1 ,500 2,200-8,500 2,500-10,000
<br /> Decrease
<br />North Platte No significant No significant No significant No significant
<br /> change expected change expected change expected change expected
<br />Rio Grande 600-1 , 1 00 100-200 59,000-99,000 60,000-100,000
<br /> Decrease
<br />South Platte 40,000-79,000 38,000-57,000 55,000-90,000 133,000-226,000
<br /> Decrease
<br />Yampa/White/ Green 100-200 1,100-2,400 0-40,000 2,600 Decrease up
<br /> to 39,000 Increase
<br />TOTAL 59,000-144,000 52,000-89,000 118,000-197,000 2,000-44,000 185,000-428,000
<br /> Decrease
<br />
<br />As noted, reductions in agricultural irrigated acres may
<br />occur due to development, acquisition for M&I needs,
<br />dry-up for instream flow purposes, or as a result of lack
<br />of long-term supply availability such as lack of
<br />augmentation for well pumping or over pumping of
<br />groundwater. As described in Section 8, not all of the
<br />reduction in agricultural irrigated acres will result in
<br />additional supplies available for M&I or other uses. In
<br />
<br />o :\SHAWN\ARKANSAS\S5 _ARKANSAS. DOC
<br />
<br />addition, not all of the development of irrigated
<br />agricultural lands for M&I use will result in a reduction of
<br />irrigation demands. Some of the development of
<br />agricultural irrigated acres will be for large lot residential
<br />development of 1 to 5 acres or ranchettes of 5 to
<br />35 acres. For many of these parcels, if the water rights
<br />are not sold and transferred at the time of development,
<br />there may be some continued irrigation for hay or
<br />
<br />CDIVI
<br />
<br />5-7
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