Arkansas Basin_Water Supply and Needs

• Basin Roundtable: Arkansas
• Title: Water Supply & Needs Report for the Arkansas Basin
• Date: 6/1/2006
• Author: CDM
• Basin Roundtables - Doc Type: Needs Assessment Documents

Section 5
Consumptive Water Needs in the Arkansas Basin

5.1.1.2 Population Projections

Future population projections were obtained from the
Colorado DOLA, Demography Section. This dataset
contains county population projections from 2000 to 2030
in annual increments. Populations for counties that lie
within two or more basins were allocated to the
respective basins based on estimates from known
population centers within each basin.

From 2000 to 2030, Colorado's population is projected to
increase by about 2.8 million additional people - a
65 percent increase - to a 2030 population of over
7.1 million. Aggregated basin summaries of the data are
presented in Figure 5-1 and Table 5-2. The vast majority
of the state's population in 2030 will live in the South
Platte and Arkansas Basins.

Yampa/White/Green
Colorad
Gunnison
Dolores/San Juan

Arkansas

Figure 5-1
Relative 2030 Populations in Each Basin

Table 5.2 Population Projections by Basin

The population centers along the Front Range will lead
the state in increases in the number of residents, this
includes an additional 450,000 additional residents in the
Arkansas Basin by 2030.

5.1.1.3 Estimates of Per Capita M&I Water Use

Numerous factors affect per capita water use rates, and
through the course of SWSI, differences in the water use
components that are included or excluded from individual
entities' per capita estimates clearly affected the resulting
values. Per capita water use rates are in large part a
function of:

. Number of households
. Persons per household
. Median household income
. Mean maximum temperature
. Total precipitation
. Total employment
. Ratio of irrigated public land areas (e.g., parks) to
population in service area
. Level of tourism and/or second homes
. Ratio of employment by sector (e.g., agriculture,
commercial, industrial)
. Urban/rural nature of county

Percent
Increase in Change 2000 to Percent Annual
Basin 2000 I 2030 Population 2030 Growth Rate
Arkansas I 835,100 I 1,293,000 457,900 55 1.5
Colorado 248,000 492,600 244,600 99 2.3
Dolores/San Juan/San Miguel 90,900 171,600 I 80,700 89 I 2.1
Gunnison 88,600 161,500 72,900 82 2.0
North Platte 1,600 2,000 I 400 25 I 0.7
Rio Grande 46,400 62,700 16,300 35 1.0
South Platte 2,985,600 4,911,600 I 1,926,000 65 I 1.7
Yampa/White/Green 39,300 61 ,400 22,1 00 56 1.5
TOTAL 4,335,500 7,156,400 I 2,820,900 65 I 1.7

Source: Colorado DOlA, Demography Section

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