|
<br />I-I ~..............
<br />l r'L~'"
<br />," .... _ J---- ....i.
<br />
<br />
<br />Section 2 " ,Arkansas
<br />Statewide Demographic, Economic, and Social Setting L: Basin
<br />
<br />As the state's population continues to grow, additional
<br />demands will be placed upon Colorado's water supplies.
<br />To characterize recent trends and existing conditions,
<br />this section presents an overview of the state's current
<br />and projected population and other key demographic
<br />factors.
<br />
<br />Each of these components has an important role in
<br />determining current and future water use patterns in the
<br />state. Section 3 explores some of these parameters on a
<br />more detailed basis for the Arkansas Basin.
<br />
<br />2.1 Colorado's Historical and
<br />
<br />Projected Demographics
<br />
<br />2.1.1 Population
<br />
<br />The State of Colorado, the 24th most populous state in
<br />the United States according to the 2000 Census, was the
<br />third fastest growing state in the nation in the 1990s,
<br />surpassed only by Nevada and Arizona. Population
<br />increases have a significant impact on water planning
<br />and management strategies. Accurate population
<br />estimates are critical in understanding future water
<br />demands and therefore affect the decisions involved in
<br />meeting those demands.
<br />
<br />Population projections were obtained from the Colorado
<br />Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) Colorado
<br />Demography Office. The DOLA dataset includes county
<br />population projections from 2000 to 2030 in annual
<br />increments.
<br />
<br />Table 2-1 Population Projections by Basin
<br />
<br />Some counties in Colorado cross major river basin
<br />boundaries, which required their populations to be
<br />appropriately allocated among basins. Given the
<br />reallocation of population for the multi-basin counties, the
<br />total population per basin was determined. The
<br />population projections for years 2000 and 2030, percent
<br />change over 30 years, and the annual growth rates are
<br />shown in Table 2-1 for each basin.
<br />
<br />Colorado's population is expected to increase by
<br />65 percent from over 4.3 million people to approximately
<br />7.1 million people between 2000 and 2030. Of the
<br />approximate 2.8 million population increase projected
<br />over this time frame, slightly more than 1.5 million or
<br />54 percent is due to net migration into the state. The
<br />remainder is a function of birth rates that are
<br />substantially higher than the number of deaths projected
<br />for each year (DOLA 2003).
<br />
<br />The populations in the West Slope basins of the
<br />Colorado, Dolores/San Juan/San Miguel, and Gunnison
<br />Rivers are projected to nearly double over the next
<br />30 years. The populations in the Arkansas, Rio Grande,
<br />South Platte, and Yampa/White/Green Basins will
<br />increase between 35 percent and 65 percent. The North
<br />Platte Basin is projected to have the lowest growth rate
<br />over the 30-year planning period.
<br />
<br /> Increase in Percent Change
<br />Basin 2000 2030 Population 2000 to 2030
<br />Arkansas I 835,100 1,293,000 457,900 55 I 1.5
<br />Colorado I 248,000 492,600 244,600 99 2.3
<br />Dolores/San Juan/ San Miguel 90,900 I 171,600 80,700 I 89 I 2.1
<br />Gunnison 88,600 161,500 72,900 82 2.0
<br />North Platte 1,600 I 2,000 400 I 25 I 0.7
<br />Rio Grande 46,400 62,700 16,300 35 1.0
<br />South Platte 2,985,600 I 4,911,600 1,926,000 I 65 I 1.7
<br />Yampa/White/Green 39,300 I 61 ,400 22,1 00 I 56 I 1.5
<br />TOTAL 4,335,500 7,156,400 2,820,900 65 1.7
<br />
<br />Source: Colorado DOLA Demography Section
<br />
<br />o :\SHAWN\ARKANSAS\S2_ARKANSAS. DOC
<br />
<br />..
<br />
<br />CDIVI
<br />
<br />2-1
<br />
<br />a
<br />DEPAIUMENT OF
<br />NATURAL
<br />RESOURCES
<br />
<br />11-
<br />f " .;,
<br />\r, OQ
<br />
<br />
<br />· (~, 'f ..
<br />
|