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000825 I've asked some ofthe best hydrologists and climate modelers in the science community to tell me whether they are able to predict when this drought is likely to end. They do not have an answer. They do not know if this is the fifth year of a five-year drought, or the fifth year of a fifteen-year drought. The drought could go longer. Today, Lake Powell stands 117 feet below full pool. Under a "worst-case" scenario, hydro-power production at Glen Canyon Dam could cease as early as 2006 and Lake Powell could reach "dead pool" as soon as 2007. Lake Mead stands only 57% full. We do not know precisely when hydro-power production would end at Hoover Dam because we are entering an untested operational regime. Current studies show that it is highly likely that we will remain below "surplus" conditions for the remainder of the period under the Interim Surplus Guidelines. In light of these new projections, we are frequently asked if we are in a crisis on the Colorado. Some argue that the drought proves that the allocation system established by the Compact and "the Law of the River is "hopelessly, irretrievably obsolete, designed on a hyrdological fallacy, around an agrarian west that no longer exists."11 The thrust of this statement is not original, as others have said virtually the same thing for decades. Taken at face value, the assertion that the Compact is "hopelessly, irrerievably obsolete" is demonstrably false. The core function of the 1922 Compact and the remainder of the Law ofthe River is to provide rules to govern water allocations in times of shortage. The fact that there is not enough water to meet all demands in a drought is not a failure of the. compact. To the contrary, the fact that water users in the basin understand what will happen if the drought continues proves that the Law of the River is working quite well. Lets look at the river. The Upper Basin is quite concerned that it's delivery obligations to the Lower Basin may require the curtailment of water uSe in the Upper Basin. That was the deal in 1922. Arizona is very concerned that the Central Arizona Project will be curtailed prior to other lower basin uses in the event of shortage conditions. That was the deal in 1968. Nevada is concerned that it only has a right to 300,000 af of water from the Colorado River. That was the deal in 1928. I am sure that California would happily take more than 4.4 million acre feet of water. But it promised not to do so in 1929, and has honored that promise. 2 See, e.g., Dean Murphy & Kirk Johnson, Drought Settles In, Lake Shrinks and West's Worries Grow, May 2, 2004, at AI. Prepared Remarks - Keynote Address Law of the Colorado River Page 3 of 8