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<br />001146 <br /> <br />Gunnison Basin Water Demand Study <br />Assumptions and Methodology <br /> <br />Assumptions: <br /> <br />· The amount of agricultural and livestock use will not increase in the 50 year planning <br />period, and thus, is ignored in this estimate of additional depletions. <br /> <br />· Major reservoir development and associated evaporative depletions will not occur in the <br />50 year period. <br /> <br />· No new out-of-basin diversions will be implemented. <br /> <br />Methodology for municipal, domestic, industrial use: <br /> <br />· On page 1, fiveyear population projection values, (i.e., 2000, 2005, 2010, etc.) were taken <br />from the Colorado Department of Local Affairs, Demography Section web site _ <br />www.dlg.oem2.state.co.us/demO!!lproiect.htm. Projections of permanent population are <br />available from this source through the year 2025. These values are based on 1990 census <br />data. Population projections based on the 2000 census will be available from the <br />demographer sometime during the summer of 2000. <br /> <br />· Annual growth rates for each county and each 5-year increment were derived for the <br />period 2000 - 2025. Average growth rates were calculated for each county. The <br />demographers estimates show annual growth rates are declining for all the affected <br />counties. However, as a conservative estimate, the average growth rates were applied for <br />25 years to the 2025 populations to project the 2050 populations. <br /> <br />· The estimated increase in population from 2000 to 2050 is calculated and then used in the <br />depletion estimate spreadsheet (page 2). <br /> <br />· The Mesa County Planning Department will provide estimates of population growth for <br />the Whitewater-Kannah Creek areas. <br /> <br />· In the depletion estimate spreadsheet, the population increase for each county is adjusted <br />for the percentage of the county's population that occurs in the specific sub-basin. <br />Factors for per capita and consumptive use are then applied to estimate the additional <br />depletion expected due to M&I use over the 50-year planning period, <br /> <br />· The per capita use and consumptive use factors were taken from assumptions for the <br />Consumptive Uses and Losses Report and StateCU. <br /> <br />Page 4 <br />