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Executive Summary (24 July 2007) <br />Final version athttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/ <br />: <br />• <br />While moderate El Niñoconditions did briefly develop over the course of last <br />winter, they never fully coupled the atmosphere to the tropical Pacific, and <br />appear to have collapsed earlier this year. Though more likely than not, a <br />transition to La Niñais not guaranteed in 2007. If it were to develop soon, it <br />would probably focuson the eastern Pacific. <br />• <br />The lastfive weeks have seen the classic Colorado ‘mixed bag’ summer <br />pattern, with dryconditions being more common than not, as well as hotter- <br />than-averagetemperatures. The near future promises some relief in the form of <br />more typicalmonsoon conditions, along with cooler temperatures. <br />• <br />My experimental forecast guidance for the monsoon season (July-September) <br />is "mild" for much of the interior southwestern U.S., with only one significant tilt <br />towards dry conditions (right over the northern Front Range).However, most of <br />New Mexico and southeast Colorado is also more likely to see a dry summer, <br />supported by good verification skill in the last seven summers. If La Niña were <br />to take off in the near future, a dry and hot late summer would be even more <br />likelyin much of Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. This scenario is less likely <br />than continued near-neutral ENSO conditions fpr thenextmonth or two. <br />• <br />Bottomline: As expected last month, the monsoon didnot kick in early this year, <br />and maynot deliver as much moisture as can normally be expected right <br />around here.Recent increased rainfall in the southern high plains should <br />continue to help us outwith the fire dangerby keeping humidity levels high <br />despite the lack of rain. <br />