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<br />GJ1589 <br /> <br />2002] <br /> <br />THE lAST GREEN lAGOON <br /> <br />945 <br /> <br />tentatively negotiated years earlier. The Agreement also <br />represents, we believe, a fundamental shift in the balance of <br />power on the River. If the cities were the victors in this latest <br />round, then the farms - lID and CVWD - were the losers, ending <br />the struggle with less water than they had before. This latest <br />round in the Colorado River water wars suggests that a shift in <br />political power from the traditional trinity of agribusiness, <br />irrigation districts, and hydropower to municipalities, and thus <br />from farms to cities, has begun. <br /> <br />D. Giving in to the Pressure? The New Colorado River Swplus <br />Criteria <br /> <br />The California water users expressly conditioned the <br />incorporation of the terms of the gSA into a legally binding <br />settlement on one essential item: Secretary of the Interior Bruce <br />Babbitt had to adopt surplus criteria that would guarantee <br />municipal water supplies through at least 2015.270 In an <br />appendix to the QSA, the California water users provided their <br />model surplus criteria, which utilized reselVoir drawdowns to <br />guarantee surplus deliveries to California above 4.4 maf - even <br />in dry years - through 2015.271 This would buy the California <br />municipalities time to seek additional supplies to guard against <br />shortages, and would give the parties time to implement the <br />complex of water transfers and conselVation measures <br />envisioned in the QSA. At the same time, it would allow Lower <br />Basin users to utilize a significant portion of the flood flows that <br />were continuing to escape to Mexico under the existing river <br />management system. California officials have long claimed that <br />the 60 maf of storage in the Colorado reselVoir system is more <br />than adequate, and that excess storage causes water to be <br />wasted in flood years.272 By allowing reselVoirs to be drawn down <br />further during normal and ctry year operations, when wet year <br />floods occur, more - if not all - of a wet year's floodwaters can <br />be captured and stored in the system for human cortsumption. <br />The QSA was expressly conditioned on Babbitt's adoption of <br />surplus criteria that were "in all respects in conformance with" <br /> <br />270. See Key Terms of Quantification Settlement, supra note 263. ~ IV(B). <br />271. See id. at Exhibit A. This strategy is supported by official California <br />projections that demonstrate a 50% probability of an average natural surplus flow till <br />2010.40% to 2020, and 30% to 2030. See McClurg, supra note 12, at 8. Of course, <br />in the event of a serious drought, shortfalls are still possible. <br />272. See McClurg, supra note 12, at 13. <br />