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OOlJ591 In a rich world, focused on material growth, driven by globalization, the gap between baseline developments and the route needed to stabilize at 450 ppmv will probably be very wide. At the same time, there will be many opportunities for interna- tional cooperation and mechanisms such as tech- nology transfers to drive ef- forts to reduce emissions. A commitment to sustainable development programs could also playa salutary role in lowering emISSiOns. The speaker demon- strated that it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions levels at below 450 ppmv through techno- logical options such as increasing efficiencies, fuel switching, and renewable energy programs, possibly supplemented with biological sinks and CO2 removal. One of the points for discussion is whether such mea- sures will have to be taken as soon as possible, or whether postponement may prove to be a more cost-effective op- tion. The IMAGE-TIMER model, in fact, demonstrated that for both macroeconomic and environmental reasons, early action is more conducive to the achievement of low sta- bilization targets, in particular because it helps to stimu- late technological innovation. Computations with macroeconomic models, such as CPB's WorldScan model for the most part demonstrate that the macroeconomic costs associated with this stabi- lization scenario will be relatively limited (at most a 2% reduction of world GDP in 2100). However, the consequences may be far more severe for individual regions or industrial sectors. Dr. de Vries concluded that other matters will also have to be taken into account in formulating long-term strategies and as- sessing costs, such as co-benefits between climate policy and other environmental policies and the distribution of burdens. 14 12 10 .... ~ U - <.0 s 6 4 2 o 1970 - En Efficiency -Fuel switch - other 2010 Nancy Kete of the World Resources Institute and Jip Lenstra of the Netherlands Ministry of Public Health, Physical Planning and Environment responded with the perspective of policy mak- ers and negotiators. Dr. Kete concluded that the previous presentations had shown that the reduc- tions provided for under the Kyoto Protocol would be inadequate in the longer term. However, the Protocol would contribute both to the learning process and provide a framework for future negotiations. She posed the question of whether this has implica- tions for the way the pro- tocol is being imple- mented. Dr. Lenstra con- cluded that policy makers are uncomfortable when presented with a wide ar- ray of possible scenarios, perhaps arguing in favor of pre- senting them with the worst case scenario. 2050 2090 .8 iofu els . Sola rlwi n din u cle a r Discussion The discussion commenced with a response from Bert de Vries and Rik: Leemans to the policy makers' views. Among their conclusions was that an important criterion for policy options is their effects on technological devel- opment. There are other matters to consider when assessing whether large-scale carbon dioxide recovery and storage can playa major role in climate policy, including the cost of development and reliability of the option and possible implications of decentralization of energy supplies. At the same time, Dr. de Vries indicated that carbon dioxide rec~)Very programs may be a critical component of long- term programs. The open discussion initially concentrated on similar topics. What role can be played by CO2 storage? Is there a part for biomass energy to play? Is nuclear energy a Continued on page 10