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;0 II~ SPONSOR'S FOREWORD This study has becn supported under the Research Applied to Nation..1 Needs (RANTN) program of the National Science Foundation's Re,,>earch Applications Directorate. ]t was initi~ued in January t 971 in response to a request from the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Science:,> of the Federal Council for Science and Technology to explore the feasibility of applying technology assessment concepts to planned weather modification operational projects. The Bureau of Reclamation's proposal to augment the flow of the Colontdo River by cloud seeding operations in the Upper Colorado River Basin was suggested by leAS for the fIrst technology assessment study since a pilot experiment was already in progress in the San Juan Mountain Range and there was a need to provide the Secretary of the Interior v.oith the necessary information to make the implemenwtion decision within the near future. The National Science Foundation was requested to sponsor tbe study because it was already committed to the role of technology assessment under the RANN program Hod had no operational role to play with regard to the pro- posed project. The selection of the Smnford Research Tnstitute to conduct this tech- nology assessment was made with the assistance of an leAS committee based upon competitive proposals submitted by cleven different orgnnizations. The contract was funded and monitored by the National Science Foundation. The Foundation has rc.c.ognized that independence of thought is an essential com- ponent of policy oriented research, and for this reason has given the contractor complete freedom in determining the substantive content of the report. Inter- ested leAS agencies have been given the opportunity to revic\\' the initial draft of this report and their comments have been supplied to the contractor as a feedbar.;k mechanism. The report as it now stands reflects the findings and opinions of the contractor, and does not reflec1 the views or condusiollS of any FederaJ agency including the FoundMioll. It should be read and evaluated in this context. It is our hope and expectation that the report will be valuable at two levels. The first is moving the discussion forward with regard to the understand- ing of the SHOW enhancement projc.cl being l:onsidcrcd for the Colorado River liasin, by developing a more incisive and salient analysis of the secondary effects, the means by which they may be determined, and the range and limita- tion of present and potcntial policy options. The second is in presenting one operating model of how to grappk with an extremely complex question: ex- ploring the full range of consequences of introducing a particular technology. v