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<br />is highly variable, a conservative approach to exclude potential contamination periods is <br />warranted. Since the wind direction during San Juan winter storms usually has some westerly <br />component, all days were excluded during which generators CCB or LS (Fig. 1) were operated. <br />These generators were west and therefore upwind of both control areas during westerly flow. <br />There was also some concern about contamination of the Lone Cone control area by generators <br />BMY, EGO, and DS under southwest flow. But given the greater intervening distances between <br />these generators and the control area, the days when these generators operated were retained in <br />the analysis. <br /> <br />b. Snow Data Assimilation System <br />The primary tool in this evaluation was the Snow Data Assimilation System @NODAS). The <br />SNODAS is a spatially distributed snow energy and mass balance model that routinely <br />assimilates all available snowpack observations. The SNODAS output variables include snow <br />water equivalent (SWE), snowpack melt, and pack temperature, on a 1 km grid nationwide. <br />Reclamation posts daily SNODAS graphics for Colorado on a web site. SNODAS was used for <br />a recent estimate of water augmentation potential from winter seeding in the Colorado River <br />Basin3 of one million acre-feet of additional snow water in an average year. Since this estimate <br />was close to those from earlier studies of augmentation potential in the basin, there was added <br />motivation to use SNODAS for the present analysis. For this study, SNODAS 24-hour SWE <br />change from the seeding target area and control areas were compared to ascertain snow water <br />augmentation from operational seeding. <br /> <br />WWC has traditionally assessed seeding impacts with data from the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) <br />system. SWE, depth, and snow precipitation are measured at these sites, which are located in <br />mountainous areas. SNOTEL snowfall and SWE measurement resolution is limited and sites are <br />sparse compared to SNODAS 1 km grid points (Fig. 2). Nevertheless, SNOTEL data are <br />assimilated by SNODAS so the two are not independent of each other. One would expect that <br />SNODAS SWE would compare well with that of SNOTEL at most SNOTEL locations in <br />Colorado, and previous unpublished analyses by Hunter have verified this expectation. <br />Furthermore, a study by the SNODAS developers shows good agreement of the system's SWE <br />output with that of a well-accepted land surface model and physical snow pit measurements, at <br />three separate locations in Colorado. <br /> <br />We are restricted to using the 24-hour SWE change (dSWE) from 0600 to 0600 UTC, since <br />there are no other SNODAS data periods or frequencies available. Therefore at a minimum, we <br />chose the 0600 UTC (2300 MST) ending time after all seeding had ceased. The rationale for this <br />decision was that if there was a difference between seeded and control areas, it would be evident <br />at this time. If the seeding spanned multiple days, intermediate days were also included in the <br />sample. Actual seeding durations varied with time and according to each generator site; of <br />course these durations did not necessarily match with the 0600-0600 UTC days. <br /> <br />The dSWE values were obtained from an areal average of all 1 km pixels in each area. <br />Therefore they are normalized for area. Nevertheless, note from Fig. 1 that the San Juan target <br />area is much larger than either control area. The control areas will therefore have much less <br /> <br />4 <br />