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Different Scenarios <br />1) Noah ’ s estimate: <br />0.5175 X (7,500,000 – 50,000) = 3,855,000 AF <br />2) Reclamation ’ s hydrologic determination: <br />0.5175 X (6,000,000 – 50,000) = 3,079,000 AF <br />A ssumes a Lee Ferry delivery of 8.25 MAF/year <br />( 7,500,000 AF for the Lower Basin plus 750,000 AF for Mexico) <br />Based on the 1954 - 1965 hydrology <br />Reclamation assumes a 11,600,000 AF ave. undepleted inflow <br />to Lake Powell <br />3) The 1965 hydrology with no deliveries from Upper <br />Basin to Mexico – approximately 3,450,000 AF <br />Bottom Line <br />Colorado is using about 2.4 to 2.7 MAF per year. <br />• <br />Colorado has about 500KAF left for development. <br />• <br />Assuming <br />Future hydrology will look like the recent past. <br />• <br />The Upper Basin delivery obligation is 8.23 MAF <br />• <br />per year. <br />CO River Water Conservation District <br />www.crwcd.org 5 <br />