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<br />
<br />
<br />South Platte ·
<br />Basin and
<br />rover/South '
<br />
<br />Uo&9u'Q~~
<br />
<br />Section 2
<br />Statewide Demographic, Economic, and
<br />Social Setting
<br />
<br />As the state's population continues to grow, additional
<br />demands will be placed upon Colorado's water supplies.
<br />To characterize recent trends and existing conditions,
<br />this section presents an overview of the state's current
<br />and projected population and other key demographic
<br />factors.
<br />
<br />Each of these components has an important role in
<br />determining current and future water use patterns in the
<br />state. Section 3 explores some of these parameters on a
<br />more detailed basis for the entire South Platte Basin.
<br />
<br />2.1 Colorado's Historical and
<br />
<br />Projected Demographics
<br />
<br />2.1.1 Population
<br />
<br />The State of Colorado, the 24th most populous state in
<br />the United States according to the 2000 Census, was the
<br />third fastest growing state in the nation in the 1990s,
<br />surpassed only by Nevada and Arizona. Population
<br />increases have a significant impact on water planning
<br />and management strategies. Accurate population
<br />estimates are critical in understanding future water
<br />demands and therefore affect the decisions involved in
<br />meeting those demands.
<br />
<br />Population projections were obtained from the Colorado
<br />Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) Colorado
<br />Demography Office. The DOLA dataset includes county
<br />
<br />Table 2-1 Population Projections by Basin
<br />
<br />
<br />Arkansas
<br />Colorado
<br />Dolores/San Juan/San Miguel
<br />Gunnison
<br />North Platte
<br />Rio Grande
<br />~~~
<br />~~~-
<br />li!ib~
<br />~~~
<br />Yampa/White/Green
<br />TOTAL
<br />Source: Colorado DOlA, Demography Section
<br />
<br />III
<br />835,100
<br />248,000
<br />90,900
<br />88,600
<br />1,600
<br />46,400
<br />~
<br />
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<br />39,300
<br />4,335,500
<br />
<br />S:\1177\Basin Reports\South Platte\S2_South Platte.doc
<br />
<br />population projections from 2000 to 2030 in annual
<br />increments.
<br />
<br />Some counties in Colorado cross major river basin
<br />boundaries, which required their populations to be
<br />appropriately allocated among basins. Given the
<br />reallocation of population for the multi-basin counties, the
<br />total population per basin was determined. The
<br />population projections for years 2000 and 2030, percent
<br />change over 30 years, and the annual growth rates are
<br />shown in Table 2-1 for each basin.
<br />
<br />Colorado's population is expected to increase by
<br />65 percent from over 4.3 million people to approximately
<br />7.1 million people between 2000 and 2030. Of the
<br />approximate 2.8 million population increase projected
<br />over this time frame, slightly more than 1.5 million or
<br />54 percent is due to net migration into the state. The
<br />remainder is a function of birth rates that are
<br />substantially higher than the number of deaths projected
<br />for each year (DOLA 2003).
<br />
<br />The populations in the West Slope basins of the
<br />Colorado, Dolores/San Juan/San Miguel, and Gunnison
<br />Rivers are projected to nearly double over the next
<br />30 years. The populations in the Arkansas, Rio Grande,
<br />South Platte, and Yampa/White/Green Basins will
<br />increase between 35 percent and 65 percent. The North
<br />Platte Basin is projected to have the lowest growth rate
<br />over the 30-year planning period.
<br />
<br />2030
<br />
<br />_..... III
<br />
<br />. I I
<br />55
<br />99
<br />89
<br />82
<br />25
<br />35
<br />~
<br />
<br />~
<br />
<br />~
<br />56
<br />65
<br />
<br />1.5
<br />2.3
<br />2.1
<br />2.0
<br />0.7
<br />1.0
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<br />~
<br />1.5
<br />1.7
<br />
<br />Increase in
<br />Population
<br />
<br />
<br />1,293,000
<br />492,600
<br />171,600
<br />161,500
<br />2,000
<br />62,700
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<br />
<br />~~
<br />
<br />~
<br />61,400
<br />7,156,400
<br />
<br />457,900
<br />244,600
<br />80,700
<br />72,900
<br />400
<br />16,300
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<br />
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<br />22,1 00
<br />2,820,900
<br />
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