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<br />greater than 1 year are considered. For example, the risk of having a <br />flood which equals or exceeds the lOO-year flood (1 percent chance of <br />annual occurrence) in any SO-year period is approximately 40 percent (4 <br />in lQ); for any 90-year period. the risk increases to approximately 60 <br />percent {6 in IO}. The analyses reported here reflect flooding <br />potentials based on conditions existing in the county at the time of <br />completion of this study. Maps and flood eievations will be amended <br />periodically to reflect future changes. <br /> <br />3.1 Hydrologic Analyses <br /> <br />Hydrologic analyses were carried aut to establish the peak <br />discharge-frequency relationships for floods of the selected <br />recurrence intervals for each flooding source studied by detailed <br />methods affecting the county. <br /> <br />For Gunnison, North Fork Gunni son, and Uncompahgre Rivers, peak <br />discharges for floods of the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year <br />recurrence in terval s were computed by the U . S. Army Corps of <br />Engineers (Reference 10).. For the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers <br />determination, a regional floodflow-frequency analysis of gaging <br />station records was made to obtain generalized relationships of <br />the mean, standard deviation and skew coefficients to develop <br />floodflow-frequency relationships. This analysis included a <br />separate determination of rainflood and snowmelt peaks. <br /> <br />The floodflaw-frequency curves for Gunnison and North Fork <br />Gunnison Rivers were based primarily on streamflow data collected <br />at u.s. Geological Survey gages located near Somerset, near Grand <br />Junction, and below the Gunnison Tunnel, and secondarily on <br />values adopted from other gages in the area. The peak flows <br />recorded since the regulation of flow by Paonia Reservoir and <br />Blue Mesa Reservoir were also used in the determina.tion of the <br />peak flows for both rivers. The present condition peak-flow <br />frequency curves for the ungaged sites ~n North Fork Gunnison and <br />Gunnison Rivers we~e developed by applying the difference between <br />the pre-regulated and present conditions for the gage located <br />near Somerset and the gage located below the Gunnison Tunnel to <br />the pre-regulated peak-flow frequency curves for the ungaged <br />sites. <br /> <br />For Uncompahgre River, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers developed <br />frequency curves for rainfall and snowmelt events at the Delta <br />and Colona u.s. Geological Survey stream gages (Reference 10). <br />The Del ta gage is located approximately 20 mi les downs tream of <br />Olathe, and the Colona gage mea.sures flow on Uncompa.hgre Ri ver <br />approximately 20 miles upstream of Olathe. These frequency <br />curves were computed by statistical analyses of stream-gage data <br />for 58 years of record at the Delta gage and 57 years of record <br />at the Colona gage. The independent frequency curves for <br />rainfall and snowmelt events were combined statistically to get <br />"all eventl1 frequency curves at the gage locations. Because the <br />two all event frequency curves were nearly identical at the two <br />gage locations, the peak discharges for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and <br /> <br />19 <br />