Laserfiche WebLink
Executive Summary (15 May 2007) <br />Final version athttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/ <br />: <br />• <br />While moderate El Niñoconditions did briefly develop over the course of last <br />winter, they never fully coupled the atmosphere to the tropical Pacific, and <br />appear to have collapsed earlier this year. Though likely, a transition to La Niña <br />is not guaranteed in 2007. If it develops soon, it will probablyfocus on the <br />eastern Pacific. <br />• <br />The lasttwo months have seen a more active storm track than in early March. <br />This has benefited the Front Range more than the Yampa valley. The rest of <br />May promises more of the same, along with seasonal-to-warm temperatures. <br />• <br />My last experimental forecast guidance for spring (April-June) gave eastern <br />Colorado better odds for a wet season than western Colorado. My outlook into <br />the monsoon season (July-September) is”mild” for Colorado: a slight tilt of the <br />odds towards “wet” for the San Juans compared to “dry” for the northern Front <br />Range. If La Ni ñ a were to take hold soon, a dry and hot summer would be <br />slightly more likely than not in our state. <br />• <br />Bottomline: ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific are not incompatible with <br />the current storminess in the western U.S., but this appears to favor the eastern <br />plains more than thewest slope of Colorado.Drought concerns should focus <br />on western Colorado where a lackluster snow packand continued dry&warm <br />conditions are setting the stage for a difficult summer. <br />