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<br />Moerel Forecasts of-ENS-O from--Apr200-t
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<br />3
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<br />I: I:
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<br />2.5
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<br />. ...
<br />. . . . . . . _ . . . . . . . _. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . _ . . . _ _ . . . . _ . . _ . . . . _ . . H' . . . _ . . . _ . . . ~ . . . . _ . . _ . . . . ... . _ . . _ .
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<br />2 .. ,... .:........ ..........,. ,.... ..:. ,.... ,. "...... .,....... .:....... ',... ,.. ,.,.. ,.. ,. .:.. ,....
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<br />0.5 . . - . . . . -. . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . - I . - . . . . . .-. - . . - . . . : - . . . . - . . ~ . . . . . . . ,'. . . . . . . . :,_" .. .- '; . . . . ~ . . - . . - . .-. . - . . . .
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<br />. . Statistical Model:
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<br />-2 .. -- .. ':' . . -- . . . ~. . -- -- . , ~ . -- ~... -- : -- . . . , . . ; . . . . -- . ':' . . . , . . . ~ . . .. . . . T . , . . -- ':' . , .. .
<br />OBS' FORECASi- :' ..
<br />
<br />-2.5
<br />JFM r...lar MAM AMJ
<br />200Z-_ _
<br />
<br />
<br />MJJ
<br />
<br />JJA
<br />
<br />JAS ASO
<br />
<br />SON
<br />
<br />OND
<br />
<br />NDJ
<br />
<br />DJF
<br />
<br />1 New ENSO
<br />Dy n amical Model:
<br />· NASA Gf','lA01 forecasts from
<br />. NCEP CFS
<br />. SCRIPPS 9* numerical &
<br />
<br />· LDEO 7 statistical
<br />. AUS'POAM A
<br />. ECMWF forecast models:
<br />· UKMO h' S .
<br />KMA SNU I t e pflng
<br />· ECHAM/MOM Predictability
<br />. COLA AN OM
<br />Barrier' remains
<br />
<br />CPC MRKOV alive and well,
<br />
<br />but EI Nino is
<br />
<br />out of the cards
<br />
<br />UBCNNEf (for now)!
<br />FSU REGR *: Ignore the
<br />
<br />NASA forecast:
<br />I poorly initialized &
<br />j predicting an ocean I
<br />colder than ever
<br />observed!
<br />
<br />CDC LI M
<br />
<br />CPC CA
<br />
<br />CPC CCA
<br />
<br />CSU cu PR
<br />
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