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<br />Executive Summary (18 April 2007) <br />Final version at: http://www.cdc.noaa.govlpeople/klaus. wolter/SWcasts/ <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />While moderate El Nino conditions did briefly develop over the course of last <br />winter, they never fully coupled the atmosphere to the tropical Pacific, and <br />appear to nave collapsed earlier this year. Though likely, a transition to La Nina <br />is not guaranteed this year. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The last month has seen a considerably more active storm track (and colder <br />weather) than earlier in March. This has stabilized the remaining snow pack <br />after appearing to be on track for near-record early meltout. The remainder of <br />April promises more of the same, with the best moisture potential around April <br />24th. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />My experimental forecast guidance for the spring season (April-June) has <br />sharpened the outlook with an expected dry spring in western Colorado <br />juxtaposed with a better-than-average odds for a wet spring east of the divide. <br />The early outlook into the monsoon season (July-SeRtember) is either I <br />undecided or dry (around here) for Colorado. If La Nina were to take hold soon, <br />a dry and hot summer would be slightly more likely than not. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Bottomline: ENSQ-neutral conditions in the Pacific are not incompatible with <br />the current storminess in the western U.S., but this appears to favor the eastern <br />plains more than the west slope of Colorado. Drought concerns should focus <br />on (south- )western Colorado where a lackluster snow pack and an expected <br />dry&warm spring are setting the stage for a difficult summer. <br />