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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />t <br />,I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />2. Water supplies, distribution and revenue in a 1st dry year: In a 1st dry year <br />scenario, the replacement pool for LA WMA is reduced to 15,000 af,but this <br />amount is augmented by a release of 4, 111 af of water held for a total <br />available supply of 19,111 af The share index is 1.06 (19,111 af divided by <br />18,049 shares) indicating that members can use 1.06 afper share. Though <br />supplies are increased relative to a normal year, they do not match the increase <br />in demand. Supplemental users would increase their plUllping from 49,966 af <br />to 74,949 afin a dry year because ofreduced surface waters, and thus their <br />need for replacement water increases to 14,090 af Based on the 1.06 share <br />index, supplemental users are allocated 9,550 af of replacement water (9,019 <br />shares * 1.06) which in turn allows them to plUTIp 50,799. Demand for <br />plUTIping exceeds allowable limits for these users and imposes a shortfall <br />demand shortfall of32.22% [(74,949 - 50,799/74,949)]. In contrast, both <br />sole-source flood and sole-source sprinkler users have a demand shortfall of <br />7.58. Revenues for LA WMA remain constant at $400,000 despite supply <br />shortfalls. <br /> <br />3. Water supplies, distribution and revenue in a 2nd dry year: In a 2nd dry <br />year, the depletion pool is 15,000 af and there is no available storage water for <br />augmentation. Here the share index is 0.83 (15,000/18,049 shares). The <br />absence of the JMR water results in an increased demand shortfall to all users. <br />Supplemental replacement demand is 14,090 af during a dry year but in a 2nd <br />dry year without JMR water, supplemental users are allocated 7,496 af, <br />resulting in a demand shortfall of 46.80%. All other users have a demand <br />shortfall, but it is considerable less than that of the supplemental users <br />(27.46% for tributary, sole-source flood and sole-source sprinkler users), The <br />only redeeming feature of this situation is that LA WMA is still able to pay its <br />bills as its revenues stays constant at $400,000. <br /> <br />Shares Organization: Dry-Year Allocation Method (82) <br /> <br />Under allocation method S2 the nlUllber of shares issued totals 24,435 - the total <br />replacement demand during a dry year. The initial distribution of shares among users is <br />based on the relative proportion of demand during a dry year. Table 7 shows that this <br />allocation favors supplemental users who receive a higher percentage oftotal shares <br />(57.66%) than W1der the first allocation (49.96%). The greater proportion of shares <br />increases the amoW1t of water available to supplemental users during dry years to help <br />mitigate their increase in demand. Conversely, as compared to S I, sole-source users have <br />less water W1der all scenarios. The bill per share is set at $15.30, which results in a <br />constant $400,000 revenue. Under this allocation method (again, prior to secondary <br />market trading) demand shortfall is equalized across groups for the dry years. In order to <br />accomplish this, however, sole-source and tributary users actually are faced with a <br />demand shortfall in normal years. Normal, 1 st chy and 2nd dry year scenarios are <br />described in following points: <br /> <br />EnWater Resource Consultants September .5, 1997 Final Report <br /> <br />34 <br />