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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I The Dry Year LA WMA has sufficient replacement water to cover the pumping impact on average flow and above-average flow years. It is the dry year that presents more difficulties. There are two major consequences of a dry year: I. The amount of replacement water held by LA WMA is partially reduced because of a portfolio of senior and junior rights held by the organization. We estimate that replacement water held by LA WMA would arrIOlll1t to 15,000 af in a dry year. LA WMA may offset this reduction by short-term leases (if they are available) of other water right holders or releases from John Martin Reservoir (JMR). Both strategies depend on circumstances in effect at the time of the dry year: LA WMA must have the cash flow reserves to lease additional water; and, for a release from JMR, LA WMA must have water in storage unusedfrom the previous year. These strategies are more fully discussed in following sections. 2. Pumping demand by members will increase in a dry year. Supplemental users will try to increase pumping to compensate for reduced surface water supplies. Helton and Williamsen, P.C. estimate that purnping can increase to over 100,000 afifit were unconstrained by legal barriers. To offset the impact on the river from such a level of purnping would require 24,435 af of replacement water. Clearly, in a dry year there will be a shortfall ofreplacement water (15,000 at) relative to the need or demand for replacement water (24,435 at). The most immediate strategy available to LA WMA is to release water held in JMR. This remedy depends on available supplies from the previous year. An underlying assumption is that LA WMA has 4,000 af of water in storage at JMR for the initial occurrence of a dry year (1 st dry year). The release increases supplies ofreplacement water from 15,000 to 19,000 af. If the dry period extends for two years (2nd dry year), LA WMA available supplies decrease back to 15,000 af for the second year. LA WMA must distribute the risk of dry year shortages in replacement water among its members. Organizational methods should be designed to distribute the risk of dry year shortfalls among members in a manner that encourages efficient water use. Characteristics of User Groups LA WMA membership can be divided into several categories of users. Because these members differ in their use of water and their need for replacement water, the organizational methods described in this report will effect types of members differently. The following paragraphs briefly describe the types of members. EnWater Resource Consultants September 5, 1997 Final Report 16