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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:29:05 PM
Creation date
2/27/2007 9:01:05 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Applicant
Arlin B. Super and James A. Heimbach Jr.
Sponsor Name
Colorado Water Conservation Board and US Bureau of Reclamation
Project Name
Literature Review/Scientific Study
Title
Feasibility of Snowpack Enhancement from Colorado Winter Mountain Clouds: Emphasis on Supercooled Liquid Water and Seeding with Silver Iodide and Propane
Prepared For
Coloado Water Conservatoin Board
Prepared By
USBR
Date
9/30/2005
State
CO
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Scientific Study
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<br />. Comparisons of the wind direction-partitioned 69 EUs with all available 98 EUs revealed <br />that basically all the seeding signal was contained within the 69 EUs where targeting was <br />highly likely. The same partition excluded northwest flow EUs which were expected to <br />transport seeding plumes south of the target gauges. <br /> <br />. A dual partition used the same wind direction partition combined with exclusion of the <br />larger 20% of natural precipitation amounts observed at the crosswind control gauge. <br />Overall results were encouraging, suggesting that real seeding effects were particularly <br />detectable when natural snowfalls were no more than moderate. <br /> <br />. Results were presented for several other single and dual partitions, the latter always <br />including the southwest quadrant winds at the seeding site. These results were mixed, <br />ranging from strongly suggestive to somewhat suggestive to inconclusive depending <br />upon the particular partition, gauge, statistical test, and number of experimental units <br />available. A number of partitions provided interesting suggestions but none of the results <br />were as convincing as the wind direction partition or entire population testing. <br /> <br />. There were suggestions that seeding may have been more effective when SL W cloud <br />(icing) was detected, when seeding plume temperatures were warmer and when wind <br />speeds were lighter. But all of these interesting but mostly inconclusive suggestions <br />would require a larger sample size than available for rigorous testing. Funding was not <br />available for an experiment longer than a single winter, or for one with a larger target <br />area including the more downwind portions of the plateau. <br /> <br />The main reason for using propane seeding is to treat mildly supercooled cloud, too warm for <br />effective AgI seeding. The frequency of such cloud over Colorado's mountains is discussed in <br />Secs 2 and 5 and Appendix A, and the topic is briefly covered below. However, there are other <br />good reasons for consideration of propane seeding as an adjunct or replacement for ground-based <br />AgI seeding. Propane dispensers are relatively simple devices, significantly less complex than <br />remote-controlled AgI generators which must use corrosive solutions. This makes them more <br />amenable for fully automatic deployment. Consequently, propane dispensers are significantly <br />more reliable and less expensive. <br /> <br />Few remote-controlled AgI generators have been capable of monitoring the relatively low <br />flow rates of AgI in solution as this is an expensive option. A number of cases have been <br />documented where the remote generator was believed to be producing AgI smoke but where no <br />AgI was detected. Silver iodide generators capable of monitoring solution flow rates have <br />recently been fielded in the Snowy Mountains of Australia and are planned for a State of <br />Wyoming program to begin during the 2005/06 winter. The authors consider it essential that any <br />remote-controlled AgI generator provide positive evidence of both solution flow rate and flame <br />temperature to insure that seeding is actually occurring. Personal communications with people <br />familiar with these newer generators have suggested their purchase price is at least a factor of two <br />higher than propane dispensers, and probably the factor is much higher for the Snowy Mountain <br />generators. The reliability of these newer and more expensive generators has yet to be <br />demonstrated. The authors' considerable experience with propane dispensers indicates that they <br />are highly reliable, and both propane flow rate and temperature downstream of the expansion <br />nozzle can easily be monitored. <br /> <br />Cloud temperatures in the SL W zone over windward slopes and crestlines have largely been <br />based on mountain-top measurements. For example, Boe and Super (1986) noted that the greatest <br /> <br />24 <br />
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