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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:29:05 PM
Creation date
2/27/2007 9:01:05 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Applicant
Arlin B. Super and James A. Heimbach Jr.
Sponsor Name
Colorado Water Conservation Board and US Bureau of Reclamation
Project Name
Literature Review/Scientific Study
Title
Feasibility of Snowpack Enhancement from Colorado Winter Mountain Clouds: Emphasis on Supercooled Liquid Water and Seeding with Silver Iodide and Propane
Prepared For
Coloado Water Conservatoin Board
Prepared By
USBR
Date
9/30/2005
State
CO
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Scientific Study
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<br />concentrations at aircraft sampling altitudes were very limited, indicating the seeding material was <br />confined to a layer no more than 2000 ft thick while being transported over the Plateau. <br /> <br />Further model evidence of the gravity wave mechanism sometimes transporting valley-released <br />AgI to plateau top elevations was presented by Heimbach et al. (1998). Their investigation <br />stratified rawinsonde observations into five stability classes, although several soundings did not fit <br />the criteria for those classes. Not unexpectedly, the most unstable sounding class produced the best <br />targeting. It also had the coldest temperatures, resulting in more effective AgI ice nuclei. That class <br />had 26% of the 46 soundings which meet the criteria but only 17 % ofthe total of72 soundings. <br />However, as discussed in Appendix C, a number of soundings were not made during actual storm <br />conditions. Only weak vertical transport was indicated for another stability class and virtually none <br />for the other three classes. Cases studies with comprehensive observations were found which <br />represented the various classes, and generally good agreement existed between these measurements <br />and model results. <br /> <br />6b. Silver-in-snow Concentrations <br /> <br />One approach for testing whether AgI seeding material was transported over a target area is to <br />monitor the concentration of silver-in-snow to determine whether it exceeds natural background <br />levels (Warburton and Young, 1968). Enhanced silver concentrations from AgI seeding have been <br />found for some programs including Super and Heimbach (1983), Heimbach and Super (1988), Chai <br />et al. (1993), Warburton et al. (1995a), Warburton et al. (1995b) and McGurty (1999). These <br />programs all used high altitude AgI generators. <br /> <br />Reynolds et al. (1989) reported upon ground-based seeding experiments with AgI generator sites <br />ranging from the foothills to sites on the west slope of the Sierra Nevada of California. A network <br />of24 generators consisted of3 long-term operational networks of remote-controlled generators and <br />1 specially-installed network of manually-operated generators. All generators were operated in a <br />coordinated fashion during a 2-mo period. A numerical targeting model was used to compute <br />nucleation and fallout locations for each generator on a given day. It appeared to provide <br />reasonable estimates of AgI plume transport and dispersion when compared with aircraft <br />observations. Silver iodide plumes released from foothill generators frequently had trajectories <br />parallel to the mountain barrier rather than over it. Targeting was more successful downwind of <br />higher elevation generators, above 6600 ft. <br /> <br />Extensive snow chemistry analysis revealed targeting effectiveness at 14 sampling sites within <br />the intended target, from north to west to south of Lake Tahoe, for the combined generator network. <br />Finding increased silver-in-snow does not prove that AgI seeding produced snowfall because <br />natural snowfall will scavenge AgI and bring it to the surface. However, failure to find silver <br />greater than natural background levels indicates the Agl plume did not pass over the sampling <br />location in adequate concentrations during the sampled snowfall period. Therefore, lack of <br />enhanced silver is interpreted to mean seeding was ineffective. <br /> <br />A large number (1,681) of individual target snow samples were collected from the 14 <br />sampling sites for chemical analysis of silver concentration. Less than 15 percent of the samples <br />indicated any silver greater than background. In summarizing the silver-in-snow sampling <br />program, Reynolds et al. (ibid.) concluded that, "These are disturbing results, even if one <br />considers only scavenging, in that the AgI must not have passed over large regions of the target <br />during precipitation events. Much of the AgI may be transported westward or northwestward at <br />low levels, effectively not passing over the barrier." These results are indeed disturbing, especially <br />since most of the generators were used for three long-term operational seeding projects, and some <br /> <br />20 <br />
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