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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:29:02 PM
Creation date
2/12/2007 10:40:38 AM
Metadata
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Template:
Weather Modification
Project Name
Evaluation of Operational Seeding in Western Kansas
Title
Evaluation of Perational Cloud Seeding in Western Kansas
Prepared For
State of Kansas
Prepared By
USBR
Date
11/1/1987
State
KS
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />analysis and difficulties introduced by changes in cropping patterns, numbers of fanners buying <br />hail insurance, and in methods of recording hail losses over the years. It was found that the hail <br />loss records improved considerably just after Wodd War II in terms of both coverage and <br />standardization. <br /> <br />The hail data were acquired in early 1986. Because the target area is located at the southwest comer <br />of Kansas, it was necessary to obtain data from six states to perform the evaluation. The data from <br />Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma were obtained on magnetic tape. The data from New <br />Mexico and Texas were obtained in printed form and had to be entered into the computer through <br />the keyboard. <br /> <br />The hail data obtained were the loss-cost ratios by township. The loss-cost ratio is defmed as the <br />ratio of the monetary damage inflicted by hail to the total value of the insured crop. Some care is <br />required in computing a loss-cost ratio for a given situation, considering that some crops are only <br />partially insured and many policies have deductible clauses. The CHIAA goes to great lengths in <br />adjusting data for different types of policies and also adjusts for different types of crops. The fmal <br />numbers provided by CHIAA can be thought of as the fraction of the insured crop value that would <br />have been lost to hail if all of the damaged fields had been planted to wheat. Even so, one must <br />recognize that crop-hail damage is a function of factors other than the size and number of hailstones <br />falling. The timing of the hailstorms and the intensity of accompanying wind and rain also enter <br />into the fmal statistics. <br /> <br />Only sea4lonal values were available; that is, there is no information regarding the dates or times of <br />individual storms. <br /> <br />Organization of the township loss-cost data onto the grid used in the evaluation required <br />considerable time. Computer programs were written to handle the different surveying systems used <br />in the various states. The center of each township within or bordering the grid was assigned a <br />latitude and longitude. In calculating the loss-cost value to be assigned to each grid point, we <br />considered all townships whose centers lay within one half of a grid spacing from that point and <br />combined them using a weighting system. The calculation of the ratio for a grid point typically <br />involved combining data from six to nine townships. <br /> <br />Once the loss-cost data were gridded and stored in the computer, they were in an easy form for <br />statistical manipulation and for viewing on graphic displays. The hail damage pattern for any year <br />could be viewed with color coding to represent the severity of the damage. Year-to-year differences <br />could be easily seen by successively viewing yearly values or by actually plotting the changes from <br />year to year. Because of space limitations, we can include only a few samples of the maps which <br />were actually viewed on the screens. For example, figure 4.1 shows the average loss-cost ratio at <br />each grid point for all of the no-seed years (1948 to 1974 inclusive) as viewed on a color display. <br /> <br />.... <br /> <br />4.2 Relationship of Hail Severity to Elevation <br /> <br />It is well known that the severity of hail decreases as one proceeds from west to east across Kansas <br />(figure 4.1). During the initial review of the hail data, a strong positive correlation (r=O.91) was <br />found between the loss-cost ratios by township and the ground elevation in each township. This <br />correlation could be due to a tendency for thunderstorms forming over high ground to be more <br />severe than those over lower ground and therefore to generate more or larger hailstones. It could <br />also be related to the melting of hailstones, as hailstones falling at low-elevation sites must fall <br />further through warm, moist air than those falling on higher terrain. The latter idea was pursued <br />quantitatively through the use of a detailed hailstone model, which allowed for melting during fall, <br /> <br />26 <br />
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