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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />GO 1 G 3"A. SUMMARY OF COMMENTS ON THE MODIFIED CENTRAL CASE <br /> <br />The following paragraphs describe briefly the assumptions and methodologies <br />used by the federal agencies in deriving the modified central case base-year <br />(1975) and projected (1985 and 2000)socio-economic characteristics, land <br />use and water use; contain regional comments pertaining to these; and brief <br />comments on SRF and MCC differences in estimates. The resulting differences <br />in SRF and MCC estimates emphasize the need to formulate improved procedures, <br />particularly for base year estimates. <br /> <br />Socio-Economic Characteristics <br /> <br />The base-year data and the projections are based on data contained in the <br />Water Resources Council publication of 1972 OBERS projections using the Series <br />E estimates of population. The modified central case estimates are basically <br />a trendline/baseline set of projections and do not take into consideration <br />several rapidly changing regional activities, such as is occurring in <br />the coal fields of Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. Although <br />projections of this nature, based on trendline/baseline projections, are a <br />valuable tool in a nationwide analysis, it must be recognized that changing <br />needs, peoples' choices, national and regional policies and other factors do <br />have a significant effect on population shifts and economic activity. These <br />effects generally are more regionally significant than they are from the <br />national perspective. <br /> <br />land Use <br /> <br />The U.S, Department of Agriculture had primary responsibility for conducting <br />the analysis of agricultural land use. A national agricultural simulation <br />model developed by the Economic Research Service and a linear programming <br />model developed by Iowa State University were combined to perform the land <br />use analysis. land use data assumptions for the Modified Central Case are as <br />follows: <br /> <br />1. land base: <br /> <br />1967 CNI acreage updated to 1973 for <br />irrigation and converted wet soils, and <br />BUREC irrigation projects in place by 2000. <br /> <br />1967 CNI acreage updated to 1973, and <br />irrigation projects in place by 2000 <br />may add irrigation development. <br /> <br />Allow the model to convert some selected <br />noncropland to crop use at the <br />1967-73 rate, up to maximum 90% of 1967 <br />CNI noncropland in these classes. <br /> <br />Water supply equal to revised quantities <br />available for agricultural use in the <br />current (1975) period, subject to declin- <br />ing ground water supplies. <br /> <br />2. Irrigated acres: <br /> <br />3. Wet soils: <br /> <br />4. Water supplies: <br /> <br />III-I <br /> <br /> <br />