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B. STATE/REGIONAL FUTURE--MODIFIED CENTRAL CASE COMPARISON The following paragraphs discuss the significant differences between the State/Regional Future (SRF) estimates and the modified central case (MCC) estimar~s. The SRF estimates displayed herein were furnished by the 10 basin states-1. Each state has its own unique procedures for developing current estimates and projections for socio-economic characteristics, land use and water use. The procedures, assumptions and methodologies are far too complex to attempt to present them in this report and would be different for each state, The modified central case procedure, assumptions and methodologies are generally described in the preceding section. With few exceptions, MCC water needs are predicated on a set of national goals and from a national perspective rather than from the regional viewpoint. Socio-Economic The Missouri basin states' estimates of current and projected population and economic growth are somewhat higher than those displayed in the OBERS Series E estimates, which are the basis of the modified central case estimates. These differences are shown in Table Series COMP-l. Differences in estimates of population start in 1975 with the SRF being about 232,400 higher than the OBERS. This difference increases to about 1,716,000 for the year 2000. It is interesting to note that the OBERS projec- tions forecast a population decline in ASA's 1004 (Yellowstone) and 1005 (Western Dakotas), although development of the extensive coal fields is already attracting a number of people to the area. The SRF also estimates a greater total employment for the region as well as a significantly higher emp1oyment/ population ratio. On the other hand, SRF annual per capita income for 1975 is estimated to be about $600 lower than the OBERS but for 2000 is forecast to be some $200 higher. Agricultural Land Use For the region, the SRF shows a 1975 estimate of about 90.5 million acres of non-irrigated cropland; whereas, the MCC shows 106,4 million acres. The SRF shows a slight increase in this category by 2000, and the MCC shows a decline of about 25.3 million acres. For irrigated lands, the SRF projects an increase from 11.5 million acres in 1975 to 17.4 million acres by 2000. These estimates contrast to those shown for the MCC of 7.9 million acres in 1975 and 9.6 million acres in 2000. The SRF estimates are considerably above the MCC estimates for all ASA's except 1007 (North-South Platte), where the MCC estimate is 100,000 acres above the SRF estimate; however, the SRF projects about a 10 percent increase in irrigated acres by 2000 and the MCC projects a decrease of about 330,000 acres, or a 15 percent decline. For 1975, the greatest numerical differences occur in ASA 1010 (Kansas) and ASA 1008 (Platte-Niobrara) where differences are 1,414,600 acres and 795,000 acres, respectively. The SRF also projects these two ASA's to show the largest numerical increases in irrigated acreages. The MCC projected increase for 2000 for ASA 1010 is only about 15 percent of the SRF forecast, and for ASA 1008 the MCC increase is about 37 percent of the SRF. Since irrigation accounts for over 90 percent of the total water used in the Missouri region, the large differences in current and projected irrigation acreages are reflected in the corresponding water use estimates throughout the basin. 11 It was agreed to use estimates of electric power production and related water use furnished by the Federal Power Commission in the SRF. III-12 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I