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<br />~~. <br /> <br />t <br /> <br />001304 <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />\~ <br />\ <br /> <br />Februarv 1. 2002 Preliminarv Forecast of Colorado River Flow into <br />lake Powell (1) (Million Acre-feet) <br /> <br /> <br /> Change From last <br /> USBR and National Weather Service Month's Forecast <br /> Aoril-Julv Water Year 2001 Aoril-Julv Wat Yr 2001 <br /> \ "I <br />Maximum (2) 8.600 12.038 4.100 7.138 ..~. <br />Mean 4.700 * 7.738 - 4.700 7.738 <br />Minimum (2) 1.500 4.138 5.100 8.138 <br /> <br />* This month's A-J forecast is 61 % of the 30-year A-J average shown below. <br />- This month's A-J forecast is 66% of the 30-year W- Y average shown below. <br /> <br />Comoarison with oast records <br />of Colorado River <br />inflow into Lake Powell <br />(at Lee Ferry prior to 1962) <br /> <br /> Aoril-Julv Flow Water Year Flow <br />Long-Time Average (1922-2001) 8.018 11.869 <br />30-yr. Average (1961-90~ 7.735 11.724 <br />10-yr. Average (1991-2001) 7.434 11 .403 <br />Max. of Record 15.404 (1984) 21.873 (1984) <br />Min. of Record 1.286 (1977) 3.663 (1977) <br />Last Year (2001) 4.301 6.955 <br /> <br />(1) Under conditions of no other Upper Basin reservoirs. <br /> <br />(2) USBR and NWS forecasts indicate the probability of 19 chances out of <br />20 that the actual flow will not exceed the maximum value, and will not be <br />less than the minimum value. <br /> <br />-5- <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />'. <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />,.\ <br />