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<br />r <br /> <br />trends are identical to two decimal places. Separate <br />..... estimates of b, for each season would result in a <br />o betterfitto the data and inmore precise estimates <br />F~~ of long-term trends by equations 3.9 and 31, <br />C> where the difference between b,ilnd Cm is evalu- <br />ated. In several cases in table 7, Cm is larger than <br />b, (see equations 30and 31), causing a reversal in <br />the sign of the estimated long-term trends. In <br />these cases, only the sign of b3 in equation 22 is <br />listed. <br /> <br />Tables 9, 10, and 11 contain the estimated long- <br />term trends for mass fraction where significant <br />values of b3 are indicated in equations 17, 19, and <br />21. The three empirical equations estimated <br />almost identical long-term trends in mass fractions. <br />Table 12 contains all trends that are indicated to be <br />significant by any of the three mass fraction <br />regressions. <br /> <br />Where no trend is indicated for an entry in tables 4 <br />through 12, an actual trend may exist, but the data <br />do not justify rejection of the null hypothesis of <br />zero long-term trend. Only a few (4 to 15) months <br />of data are available for the Cameo station, which <br />waS included in the trend analysis because of its <br />importance as a major gaging station on the <br />Colorado River. Generally, for each row in tables 4 <br />through 8, the sum of the significant trends in <br />concentration for the six individual ions (columns <br />3 through 8) is approximately equal to the signifi- <br />cant trend estimated for the sum of the six ions <br />(column 9). For each row of mass fractions in <br />tables 9 through 12, the sum of the significant <br />trends of the individual ions is approximately zero. <br /> <br />Long term declines in the TDS (sum of six ions), <br />corrected for the variation in streamflow by multiple <br />regression, are evident at 8 of the 12 gaging <br />stations (see table 8). The Dolores River near Cisco <br />and the Yampa River near Maybell are the only <br />stations indicated to be experiencing an increase <br />in salinity. <br /> <br />At eight gaging stations the regression results <br />indicate a negative trend in sulfate ion concen- <br />tration and mass fraction (see tables 8 and 12). <br />Declines in the concentrations of magnesium and <br />sodium ions are evident at seven stations (not <br />including Cameo). For the base flow season of <br />December to March, in the Colorado River at Lees <br />Ferry and near the Grand Canyon, the concen- <br />trations of the sulfate, magnesium, and sodium <br />ions have declined in stoichiometric proportions, <br />causing a decline in TDS of approximately 2mg/L <br />per year. Figures 6 through 9 and 10 through 13 <br />illustrate the declines in magnesium and sulfate <br />concentrations during December, January, Feb- <br /> <br />ruary, and March in the Colorado River near the <br />Grand Canyon. The v-variable is transformed to <br />accommodate a two-dimensional figure. The v- <br />variable in figures 6 through 8 and 10 through 12 <br />is the ion concentration with a linear or power <br />correction for the natural variability of streamflow. <br />The regression lines are the results ofthe empirical <br />multiple linear regressions (equations 15, 17, and <br />19). The v-variable in figures 9 and 13 is the <br />estimated value of the product of the solid-liquid <br />mass transfer coefficient (k) and the total solid- <br />liquid contact area (A) upstream of the gaging <br />station (see equations 8 and 9). The regression <br />lines are the result of nonlinear regression with <br />the residence time equation (equation 22). <br /> <br /> <br />IMPACT OF FLOW REGULATION <br /> <br />When an impoundment is created, upstream <br />waters are mixed in the reservoir and quality <br />fluctuations diminish. Water released downstream <br />during periods of natural low flow decreases the <br />normally high salt concentrations. In addition, <br />chemical changes caused by the dissolution and <br />precipitation of mineral salts within the reservoir <br />may change the character of the release water [8]. <br />At locations such as Lees Ferry, where flow is <br />almost completely regulated, concentration is no <br />longer related to flow. At other sites, where flow <br />has become partially regulated, the concentration- <br />flow relationship may be weakened or changed <br />altogether. The impact of regulation must then be <br />evaluated independent of streamflow. Therefore, <br />two statistical analyses were used to test for <br />changes in water quality as a function of time <br />alone. <br /> <br />In both analyses, the monthly data were divided <br />into two periods: (1) before 1963, and (2) after <br />1965. These represent the times before and after <br />the filling of the Colorado River Storage Project <br />reservoirs. Solute loads, mass fractions, and flow- <br />weighted concentrations were computed for the <br />three seasons: December-March, May-June, and <br />August-November. Student's ttest was then used <br />to determine significant differences between mean <br />seasonal values. Trends following regulation were <br />tested by linear regression, with time as the sole <br />independent variable. All stations were treated <br />alike, even if the flow there did not become <br />regulated during the 1963-65 period. The results <br />could then be compared between stations and <br />regulation impact could be separated from other <br />basinwide influences. Complete results of these <br />tests are displayed in tables 10 and 11 of <br />appendixes B through P. <br /> <br />17 <br />