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<br />ADDITIONAL INFORMATION <br /> <br />Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use <br />average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. As the forecast season <br />progresses, a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known <br />and monthly forecasts become more accurate. <br /> <br />Volume forecasts represent adjusted flows; that is, observed flows with upstream water use taken <br />into account. Adjusted flows will closely approximate natural or unimpaired flows. However, not <br />all upstream diversions or impoundments are measured or quantifiable. For specific adjustments <br />used with each forecast point, consult the Guide to Water Supply Forecasting. <br /> <br />The Water Supply Outlook is issued monthly January through May by the Colorado Basin River <br />Forecast Center, National Weather Service. It represents a coordinated effort .between the <br />National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. <br />Geological Survey and local water district managers. <br /> <br />DEFINITIONS: <br /> <br />Acre-Foot: <br />The volume equal to one acre covered one foot deep (43,560 cubic feet). <br /> <br />Average: <br />The arithmetic mean. The sum of the values divided by the number of values. <br /> <br />Categories: <br />Much above Average <br />Greater than 130% <br /> <br />Above Average <br />111-130% <br /> <br />Near Average <br />90-110% <br /> <br />Below Average <br />70-89% <br /> <br />Much Below Average- <br />Less than 70% <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />Forecast Period: <br />The period from April 1 through July 31. <br /> <br />Median: <br />The middle value. One half of the observed values are higher and half of the values are lower than <br />this. <br /> <br />Most Probable Forecast: <br />Given the current hydrometeorological conditions to date, this is the best estimate of what the <br />runoff volume will be this season. <br /> <br />Reasonable Maximum Forecast: <br />Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, the seasonal runoff that has a ten percent <br />(10%) chance of being exceeded. <br /> <br />Reasonable Minimum Forecast: <br />Given the current hydrometeorological conditions, the seasonal runoff that has a ninety percent <br />(90%) chance of being exceeded. <br /> <br />Water Year: <br />The period from October 1 through September 30. <br /> <br />NOTE: Data used in this reDort are Drovisional and are subiect to revision. <br /> <br />For more information, or to be included on the mailing list, please contact: <br /> <br />Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, National Weather Service <br />2242 W. North Temple' Salt Lake City, UT 841 16. (8011524-5130' http://www.cbrfc.gov <br /> <br />Colorado Basin River Forecast Center - National Weather Service <br /> <br />Page 16 <br />